We’ve got 10 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an Eastern Conference clash between the Philadelphia Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs at Wells Fargo Arena.
Matthew Knies has been on fire since being reunited with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. The Leafs' top line has combined for 16 points, with Knies leading the charge with six in his last two games, and my Leafs vs. Flyers predictions expect him to reach the scoresheet yet again.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for Tuesday, January 7.
Maple Leafs vs Flyers prediction
My Leafs pick
Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points (+100 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Philadelphia Flyers finish up a home-and-home set tonight in Philadelphia. Toronto was victorious in their last meeting Sunday evening and will look to make it a clean sweep with a win tonight.
It will be the third game since Auston Matthews’ return to the lineup, and his top line has contributed six goals over the last two games. However, the points leader on that line hasn't been Matthews or Mitch Marner; it’s been Matthew Knies, who is listed at +100 to record a point tonight.
Knies was called out by coach Craig Berube heading into the New Year's Eve matinee a week ago, and he’s responded ever since.
“He’s not quite where he was at, or the level he was at. We need to get him there,” Berube said. “I think the effort is there; it’s the little things that he could do better and clean up, and we have to get him back to the level he was at before he was out.”
Knies has responded with six points over his past two games, scoring four goals and adding two helpers. At even money (+100), there’s good value on him to find the scoresheet against a subpar Flyers squad that can’t seem to keep the puck out of the net.
Philly ranks 30th in the NHL in goals allowed per game, surrendering an average of 3.55 goals per contest with an NHL-worst .868 team SV%, according to Natural Stat Trick. Additionally, Philadelphia has allowed four or more goals in seven of their last 10 games.
This can be attributed to the fact that this is also a team that gives up a lot of scoring chances. Philly ranks 24th in scoring chances against, allowing 26.95 chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5. They also have the league's worst high-danger save percentage.
This bodes well for Knies and the Leafs' top line, ranking second among all lines of 200+ minutes together in expected goals per 60 minutes while boasting the fifth-best mark in actual goals per 60 (4.1), per Moneypuck.
Moreover, Toronto has completely controlled this matchup over the years, winning nine of the last 10 meetings where the Buds have averaged 4.5 goals per game against Philly.
I fully expect the Leafs' top line to keep the strong play going and the good vibes rolling, which should allow Knies to leave a mark for a third straight game.
Maple Leafs vs Flyers same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Knies anytime goal
Auston Matthews 3+ shots
Leafs moneyline
Knies has scored in back-to-back games and he'll be in the scoring areas that have plagued the Flyers all season (.769 HDSV%).
We’ll stick with the top line and take Auston Matthews to record 3+ shots on goal. He’s hit this total in both games since returning to the lineup and has done so in eight of his last nine outings. The Leafs captain is also averaging 4.19 shots on net per game this season.
For the final leg of our SGP, let's roll with the Leafs on the moneyline. Toronto has won four straight on the road, while the Flyers are just 8-10 on home ice.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Flyers odds
Maple Leafs vs Flyers live odds
Maple Leafs vs Flyers opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+165) | Philadelphia +1.5 (-200)
- Moneyline: Toronto -150 | Philadelphia +125
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-120) | Under 6 (+100)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Flyers trend
The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Leafs and Flyers. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Flyers.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Flyers
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-7-2025 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | HULU |
Maple Leafs vs Flyers latest injuries
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