We’ve got 15 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including a cross-border matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Buffalo Sabres.
The NHL odds give the edge to the Leafs tonight, but it’ll take another strong game from Auston Matthews to power the injury-ridden Buds to victory in Buffalo.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres on Saturday, March 30.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres odds
Maple Leafs vs Sabres predictions
Tonight marks the third and final meeting between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres this season.
The series is split so far, with both teams winning their home games already this season. There have been numerous wild and wacky games between these two teams over the past few years, which is why I’m staying away from picking a side in this one and focusing on the more predictable shot prop market.
The Sabres have been leaky lately, allowing 35.2 shots on goal per game over their last six, the second most allowed in the NHL over that span. Meanwhile, the Leafs are firing pucks on net at the third-highest rate in the league, averaging 35.7 shots per contest.
The man leading the charge in that department is Auston Matthews, who is averaging 6.5 shots on goal over that same stretch of games, with at least four shots in each of them.
In fact, the Leafs star pivot sits third in the league in shots on goal this year, with 315 of them coming in the span of 71 games (4.43 per game). Matthews' shot prop total is set at 4.5 tonight, and with 60 in his sights, I think he’ll be throwing everything at the net until he hits it.
My best bet: Auston Matthews Over 4.5 shots (-150 at SIA)
Maple Leafs vs Sabres same-game parlay
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer
Over 5.5 goals
First team to score: Maple Leafs
For leg one of my same-game parlay, we’ll pair my Matthews shot prop with an anytime goal bet from the Leafs sniper. He’s still on the hunt for 60 goals, and it seems like the Leafs are trying to force it a bit. Luckily, he’s got a pretty good track record against Buffalo, with a goal in four straight meetings. I think he scores again tonight and gets his 60th of the year.
Next up, let's take the alternate Over at 5.5 goals. This matchup has seen 6+ goals scored in nine of the last 10 games between each other. The Sabres are on the second night of a back-to-back, which could cause some messiness for them. Meanwhile, the Leafs are dealing with many injuries to key players, which could allow Buffalo to take advantage and light the lamp a couple of times.
For my final leg, I’ll take the Leafs to score the first goal. They’ve done so in 41 of their 72 games this season (56.9%). Additionally, the first period has been the Sabres’ worst period all season, allowing 1.23 goals on average while surrendering the first goal in 58% of their games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Sabres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Leafs come into tonight as the favorites at -155, with the Sabres getting +130 odds as the home dogs.
- Buffalo’s record in back-to-backs this year is 3-8 with a 3.91 GAA.
- The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals, shaded toward the Under at -120, with the Over paying even money.
- The Over has been a good play in this matchup, with eight of the last 10 games being high-scoring affairs with at least seven goals scored.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres betting trend to know
The Leafs have hit the third-period game total Under in five of their last six games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres.
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Maple Leafs vs Sabres game info
| Location: | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, March 30, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+, HULU |
Maple Leafs vs Sabres latest injuries
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