The Edmonton Oilers host the Vegas Golden Knights at Rogers Place on Wednesday, November 6, and the pair of Pacific Division foes project to be battling for top billing in the division all season long.
Edmonton has barely skipped a beat and upped its defensive game with superstar Connor McDavid sidelined with an ankle injury, and our top Oilers vs. Golden Knights predictions expect the Oil to play to the Under for a fourth consecutive game without their No. 1 center.
Read on for my favorite NHL picks from this clash with the puck scheduled to drop at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Oilers vs Golden Knights prediction
My Oilers pick
Under 6.5 (-120 at BET99)
My Oilers analysis
The Edmonton Oilers have battened down the hatches without injured superstar Connor McDavid (ankle), winning two of three games while playing to the Under in each. Edmonton has surrendered just three goals and 5.04 expected goals at 5-on-5 during the stretch, and likely starting goalie Stuart Skinner turned away 29 of 31 shots (.935 save percentage) during Sunday’s 4-2 road win over the Calgary Flames.
Additionally, Edmonton was a force at 5-on-5 during Monday’s 3-0 loss to the New Jersey Devils. The Oil posted a 69.1 Corsi For percentage and 68.9 expected goals percentage while holding the Devils to just six high-danger scoring chances.
Turning to the Vegas Golden Knights, they’ve traveled poorly with a 0-3-1 road record, but I’m actually more encouraged about the screaming statistical correction ahead of their second-ranked 13.61 shooting percentage at 5-on-5. For comparison, Vegas posted an 8.77 mark last season, so the puck luck is going to sour sooner than later.
The Golden Knights have also been on the wrong side of the 5-on-5 play for most of the season with a 27th-ranked 46.4 CF% and 24th-ranked 47.3 xGF%. So, with Edmonton tightening up defensively, the shooting-percentage decline setting in for Vegas is in the cards tonight.
Of course, Edmonton had strong underlying metrics even before the McDavid injury. The Oilers entered their game against the Columbus Blue Jackets — when No. 97 was hurt — with a second-ranked 58.6 CF% and sixth-ranked 56.0 xGF% at 5-on-5, and they sport respective second-ranked 56.7% and fifth-ranked 55.6% marks ahead of tonight’s tilt.
Oilers vs Golden Knights same-game parlay (SGP)
Oilers moneyline
Under 6.5
Darnell Nurse Over 2.5 shots
The case for the Edmonton moneyline is highlighted in the superior 5-on-5 numbers, in addition to the noted pending negative regression to the Vegas team shooting percentage. I don’t put huge stock into the Golden Knights starting the season 0-3-1 on the road, but three of those four losses came against teams with an xGF% well above 50% at 5-on-5, and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the outlier with a 49.9 xGF%.
Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse has seen his minutes climb and shot volume skyrocket the past four games with 18 shots and 24 attempts while logging 22:01 of ice time per game compared to his 20:48 average to start the season.
Nurse is also sixth in both shots and attempts per 60 minutes for the Oil this season, and he’s recorded three or more shots in four straight games to climb to seven of 13 for the year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oilers vs Golden Knights odds
Oilers vs Golden Knights live odds
Oilers vs Golden Knights opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton -115 | Vegas -105
- Moneyline: Edmonton -1.5 (+200) | Vegas +1.5 (-250)
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-130) | Under 6 (+100)
Odds courtesy of BET99
Oilers vs Golden Knights trend
The Edmonton Oilers have played to the Under in all three games since Connor McDavid (ankle) was injured. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Golden Knights.
How to watch Oilers vs Golden Knights
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-6-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet West |
Oilers vs Golden Knights latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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