A massive day of basketball wraps up in Hawaii when a talented North Carolina Tar Heels squad faces off against the undefeated and underrated Dayton Flyers.
My North Carolina vs. Dayton predictions break down the matchup, particularly as it pertains to Tar Heels sophomore Elliot Cadeau. Read more in my college basketball picks for Monday, Novemeber 25 below.
Dayton vs North Carolina prediction
My best bet
Elliot Cadeau Over 14.5 points (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
When looking at this game, what jumps off the page is the transition defense of one team compared to the transition offense of the other.
It should come as no surprise that the North Carolina Tar Heels are yet again on track to be one of the best transition offenses in the country, arriving at this game ranking in the Top 10% of basketball in such rankings.
Sure, it’s early, and the sample is small, but the historical traits of a team with mostly their integral pieces still in place suggest this should continue. That’s a problem for the Dayton Flyers, and there are multiple ways to target it; I’m choosing the Over on sophomore Elliot Cadeau’s scoring.
Cadeau has started to build his scoring over the last few games. Against American, he had his best game of the season with 18 points and eight assists, and he followed that up.
UNC arrived in Hawaii a bit early to get used to the time change and environment while getting in a game against Hawaii. Cadeau flourished there, too, with 17 points and four assists. Each of these teams has horrific transition defenses, so maybe you’re sensing a theme.
Dayton is in the Bottom 40% of basketball in transition defense, allowing 1.22 points per possession on such opportunities. It would likely be worse if Anthony Grant teams weren’t so good at transition denial, only giving such chances at a 14% clip. It would also be worse if it had played a good team so far this season.
That denial aspect plays a part, but the Heels are so good at forcing their style on others that I expect them to at least find some of those opportunities. Beyond that, though, there are also openings in the halfcourt for Cadeau. Dayton is solid defensively, but they’ve struggled to defend drives at the rim compared to what they’ve usually been. That’s another strong point of Cadeau’s game.
As someone high on Cadeau since he arrived at UNC, I won’t pass up the chance to back him when he appears to be playing at his highest level. I made this line 15.5 and feel great about it as long as we see over 70 possessions.
Dayton vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Elliot Cadeau Over 14.5 points
Elliot Cadeau Under 0.5 threes
Race to 20 points: North Carolina
We decided to have a little fun here.
The first addition is Cadeau not hitting a three. I documented at the beginning of the season that he had spent time in the offseason improving this aspect of his game, but outside the opener, I’m not sure it’s really shown. He went over this point total with no threes in UNC’s first game on the island; why not go for two in a row?
The last leg is for the Tar Heels to reach 20 points first. If there were ever a situational play, it would be this one. UNC elected to get to Hawaii much sooner than every other team and get acclimated to the timezone. That should give them an edge in a game that’s tipping off near midnight local time for the Flyers, especially early on.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Dayton vs North Carolina odds
Dayton vs North Carolina live odds
Dayton vs North Carolina opening odds
- Spread: Dayton +7 | North Carolina -7
- Moneyline: Dayton +230 | North Carolina -280
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 | Under 156.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Dayton vs North Carolina betting trend to know
North Carolina has cashed the first-half Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.40 units / 25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Dayton vs. North Carolina.
How to watch Dayton vs North Carolina
| Location: | Lahaina Civic Center, Maui, HI |
| Date: | Monday, 11-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Dayton vs North Carolina key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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