Perhaps no other team in the Big 12 has such a gap between its ceiling and its floor as the Kansas State Wildcats do.
A six-game winning streak bridging January and February featured wins against Iowa State, Kansas, and Arizona. It was then followed by a four-game losing streak, with three of the defeats coming against teams below the Wildcats in the Big 12 standings, including a 12-point home failure against the Arizona State Sun Devils.
My Arizona State vs. Kansas State predictions expect the Wildcats to win tonight’s rubber match in the Big 12 Tournament. Find out more in my college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 11.
Arizona State vs Kansas State prediction
Who will win Arizona State vs Kansas State?
As humbling as Kansas State’s February slide was, it pales in comparison to Arizona State’s stumble since Feb. 1. The Sun Devils have gone 1-10 outright in the last six weeks, losing six of those by double digits.
Their upset in Manhattan was rather shocking, but it was but a momentary moment of Arizona State looking competent. Exceptions prove rules, and that exception proved the rule of doubting the Sun Devils tonight.
My best bet
Kansas State 1H moneyline and full-time moneyline same-game parlay (-140 at bet365)
My analysis
Some amount of Arizona State’s tailspin can be attributed to the injuries to senior guard Adam Miller (hip) and freshman forward Jayden Quaintance (knee). Miller has missed the last three games, while Quaintance has played in just two of the last eight contests.
Losing Miller costs the Sun Devils their best shooter and most efficient scorer. Quaintance’s absence creates a vacuum in tracking down rebounds. In other words, the combination made every part of Arizona State better.
With every part of Arizona State now worse, trusting Kansas State to control this game wire-to-wire makes sense.
Consider just how much worse the Sun Devils are. Since Quaintance played nine minutes before his injury against Oklahoma State, including that game on Feb. 9, Arizona State’s defense has rated as the No. 206 unit in the country, per BartTorvik. It is 12 points worse per 100 possessions than the Sun Devils’ defense was before that game.
Even with a bettered offense, that crippling defense is too much a failure to compensate for.
Against the Wildcats, an impotent defense is the wrong weakness to try to cover up. Kansas State’s offense generally struggles, while the Wildcats boast the No. 5 defense in the Big 12, per KenPom.
That defense will stifle Arizona State’s decent offense, and the Sun Devils’ disaster of a stop unit should gift Kansas State an early lead.
Arizona State vs Kansas State same-game parlay (SGP)
Kansas State 1H moneyline
Kansas State moneyline
David N'Guessan Over 17.5 points
Even though Quaintance played all or part of 13 conference games, Arizona State has struggled to rebound throughout Big 12 play. The Sun Devils rank No. 15 in the conference in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates.
No one is better positioned to exploit that than Kansas State forward David N’Guessan, the best offensive rebounder in the Wildcats’ rotation. He collects 11.4% of his own team’s misses when he is on the court, and a couple of those should help N’Guessan eclipse this points prop.
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Arizona State vs Kansas State odds
Arizona State vs Kansas State live odds
Arizona State vs Kansas State opening odds
- Spread: Arizona State +5.5 | Kansas State -5.5
- Moneyline: Arizona State +180 | Kansas State -220
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 | Under 142.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arizona State vs Kansas State betting trend to know
While Arizona State went 1-10 outright since Feb. 1, it also went 3-8 against the spread, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 2.8 points during that stretch. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona State vs. Kansas State.
How to watch Arizona State vs Kansas State
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Arizona State vs Kansas State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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