It's California vs. Virginia Tech in the first round of the ACC tournament, and it should be a good one.
The two teams met earlier this season, with Virginia Tech grabbing a narrow three-point win. However, that was two months ago, which is now the case. These teams enter this matchup with one win in their last three games. Cal has a slight edge in quality of play via the eye test but is backed up by a 2-1 ATS record in the stretch, while the Hokies have gone 1-2. That will manifest today, and the Golden Bears will win.
Read on for my California vs. Virginia Tech predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 11.
California vs Virginia Tech prediction
Who will win California vs Virginia Tech?
California moneyline is my best bet, and I expect them to win the game.
By any definable metric, the Bears have run a considerably better offense this season. In what should be a rock fight at times, the Bears' superiority on the offensive backboard will ultimately be the difference.
My best bet
California moneyline (-166 at bet365)
My analysis
The California Golden Bears fit the profile of a team that could make a freak conference tournament run here. I'm grabbing them today to get the win as my best bet. However, before we talk about the Bears, let's talk about what happened in the first meeting between these two teams in January.
We saw a methodically slow game with just 63 possessions and a relatively efficient offense from both teams. Almost the entire difference in the matchup was found on the backboard, where the Virginia Tech Hokies outrebounded California by a nearly 2-1 rate. That was out of character for both teams. Since that matchup, the Bears have held an outsized margin against their opponents on the backboard, and Virginia Tech has been slightly below average. I think those improvements could be the difference today but beyond that…
The Bears are dangerous because they can't shoot. Let me rephrase that: The Bears are dangerous because they are due for massively positive shot regression. It's astonishing.
California has run the nation's 56th-best offense and is expected to have its 13-18 record flipped based on its shot quality. An eFG% that ranks in the 350s nationally is nearly impossible to compute for a team that generates as many open shots as Cal does. Can they get hot this weekend in Charlotte? Maybe. But even to win just a few games, they must go from a horrific shooting team to a bad shooting team. This matchup suits them.
Over the last month, Virginia Tech's opponents have been taking almost 40% of their shots from beyond the arc. That's one of the highest in the ACC. They are taking them because they are open. That plays into the hands of precisely what we're talking about. Jeremiah Wilkinson, Andrej Stojakovic, and Jovan Blackshear have all demonstrated the ability to make these throughout the year. There's an ample chance that one plays a part in the win today.
On the other end, defensively, I like what California can do to tighten the latches in this game. Virginia Tech is a three-point reliant team. 41% of their shots since the start of the New Year have been from deep. The problem is that California has become an excellent defense at running opponents off the three-point line, rating 19th in opponent three-point rate. In other words, it will be difficult for Virginia Tech to make threes because hardly any team has been able to get many off against Cal lately.
There are more outlets for the Bears to win this game than Virginia Tech. In addition to all of the shooting aspects we talked about, California finished first in the ACC in shot volume, which means the math will inevitably be in their favor in any low-possession game. I priced the money line at -180, and though we're buying some juice, I saw more value in it than the current spreads after some early morning line movement happened.
California vs Virginia Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
California moneyline
Andrej Stojakovic Over 1.5 threes
Someone has to take advantage of the open threes, and we like Andrej Stojakovic to be that guy here – we paired him with our best bet.
The sophomore (and son of that Stojakovic) has had a strange season. His three-point percentage dropped compared to last season, but despite that, he's taken two more threes per game on average than he did a season ago. He's had enough outbursts this season, like the four threes he made against Georgia Tech and the three against Missouri, to validate that he's capable of making multiples in a game.
The volume he should have in this game from beyond the arc gives this number some value.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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California vs Virginia Tech odds
California vs Virginia Tech live odds
California vs Virginia Tech opening odds
- Spread: California -2.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: California -130 | Virginia Tech +108
- Over/Under: Over 139.5 | Under 139.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
California vs Virginia Tech betting trend to know
California has covered the Spread in 17 of their last 31 games (+2.70 Units / 8% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for California vs. Virginia Tech.
How to watch California vs Virginia Tech
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ACC Network |
California vs Virginia Tech key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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