Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Value on Tage Jumps off the Page

Prop bet #1: Tage takes advantage

Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson has seen a huge uptick in shot volume with linemate Jeff Skinner out of the lineup the past three games. Skinner and Thompson rank first and second, respectively, in shots and attempts per 60 minutes for the team, and with Skinner sidelined, Thompson has been the beneficiary of more shooting opportunities. 

Thompson has registered 13 shots and 22 attempts during the noted three-game stretch, and his shot volume has also been higher on home ice this season. He’s registered 12.76 shots and 22.86 attempts per 60 at KeyBank Center compared to 9.71 and 18.78 marks on the highway. Additionally, the 26-year-old star is the go-to shooter with the man advantage.

This is also a plus matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks. The Hawks have allowed the seventh-most shots per game (32.6), and they also sport a 31st-rank 44.2 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5. Add Chicago taking the 10th-most minor penalties at 5-on-5 this season, and Thompson should have ample opportunities to clear this 3.5-shot total.

I’m showing value on these Tage Thompson odds with a projection of 4.08 shots.

Tage Thompson prop: Over 3.5 shots on goal (-115 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Sabres stymie Chicago

The Blackhawks have scored a single regulation goal in each of their past four games, and they’ll face the Sabres on the road this Thursday. Even with the game pushed back a day, it’s going to be a tough spot for the injury-depleted Blackhawks, and especially with Sabres netminder Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen rolling along an impressive 4-1 stretch with a .950 SV% and 1.40 GAA out of the holiday break.

Chicago ranks last in the league in expected goals per 60 minutes (2.13) and second-last in Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5, and the Blackhawks have generated a pedestrian 8.82 high-danger scoring chances per 60 (7.65 at 5-on-5) during the noted four-game scoring drought.

By no means are the Sabres a defense to steer clear of, but Buffalo drives possession (50.8 CF%) and is on the right side of the goals differential (50.3%) at 5-on-5. Additionally, with the Blackhawks sporting a 31st-ranked 13.1 power-play percentage, I’m not anticipating special teams going in Chicago’s favor, either.

Finally, I’m also betting a half unit on the Under 1.5 goals (+195), and will be looking at the shutout odds for Luukkonen once they’re released.

Blackhawks prop: Team total Under 2.5 goals (-140 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Kane continues to capitalize

The Edmonton Oilers have a new-look second line of Leon Draisaitl, Evander Kane and Warren Foegele, and it’s clicking. They’ve combined for 20 shots on 38 attempts with a 63.3 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 the past two games. Kane was skating on the third line with center Derek Ryan, so the move to flank Draisaitl is a huge upgrade.

Kane has 10 shots and 16 attempts the past two games, and this matchup is sneaky good. The Seattle Kraken have surrendered a healthy 31.85 shots and 68.12 attempts per 60 minutes through nine games out of the holiday break, and they have also been more susceptible to opposing shooters on the road all year. The Kraken climb to respective 30.47 and 60.17 marks on the highway compared to 27.61 and 57.87 numbers at home.

These Evander Kane odds are also showing value because he was consistently trading at a 3.5-shot total in previous seasons and earlier this year when skating in a similar top-six role. I have Kane projected for 3.14 shots tonight, and he’s cleared this 2.5-shot total in 23 of 39 games this season.

Evander Kane prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-120 at Bet99)