We’ve got just two games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including a divisional matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Detroit Red Wings.
The Leafs won 3-2 when these teams last played, with William Nylander being the first star of the game. The NHL odds suggest another high-scoring Leafs win tonight, and I think No. 88 on Toronto shows up again.
Find out which one of his NHL player props I'll be backing in my free NHL picks for the Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs on January 14.
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs odds
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs predictions
After a week of excellent two-way play where the Toronto Maple Leafs allowed five goals in a five-game span, they have now had back-to-back lackluster performances that have ended in a 4-3 overtime loss to the Islanders, and a 5-3 loss to Colorado last night.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings are coming off a 5-3 win over the Kings and have won four of their last five. However, Detroit’s victories haven’t necessarily come easy. Despite winning, the team is giving up 36.8 shots per game.
Considering the Leafs have averaged nearly 40 shots per game over their last five, that makes me look to Toronto’s shot prop market for tonight’s best bet.
Enter William Nylander.
The Leafs newly minted All-Star has been a shooting machine this season. He ranks fourth in the NHL with 173 total shots on goal for an average of 4.32 spg.
Nylander’s shot prop is set at 3.5 tonight, and it’s a total he’s hit in six of his last seven games — averaging 4.14 per game over that stretch. It’s also a number he’s gone Over in four straight games against the Wings, including the November meeting when Nylander had three points in the Leafs comeback victory in Sweden.
Additionally, Toronto Head Coach Sheldon Keefe was not pleased by the play of the Leafs’ second line, which features Nylander.
“That line was not good for us. They did not have one good shift.” Keefe said after Toronto’s 5-3 loss Saturday night.
Perhaps that kick in the pants motivates the trio of Nylander, John Tavares, and Tyler Bertuzzi to come out on fire tonight and control play on the offensive end. If that happens, Nylander has become the go-to triggerman of the trio and will have a good chance to register the four shots needed to cash the Over.
My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (-155 at SIA)
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Red Wings vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
William Nylander anytime goalscorer
Over 6.5 goals
Maple Leafs moneyline
With the type of shot volume Nylander is directing on goals, he’s bound to snap out of this three-game skid. He's only gone four straight without a goal twice this season.
Next up, I like the Maple Leafs to stop their losing streak and win the game tonight. Keefe called out his team last night, and typically that lights a fire under his players the following game. Additionally, Toronto has won eight of the last 10 meetings between these two and it has the tools to win again.
For my final leg, let’s roll with the Over on the alternate total of 6.5 goals. The Over has hit in three straight games for the Leafs and seven of the last 10 games for the Wings. Both of these clubs combine for 7.07 goals and allow 6.57 against per game, so I think it’s likely we see seven-plus goals.
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Red Wings vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs come into tonight as -200 home favorites, with the Red Wings entering as the underdogs at +165 odds. Detroit is 4-1 on the moneyline in its last five games but has had stellar goaltending from Alex Lyon to thank for that, as the team has been outplayed in terms of expected goals in four of those five matchups.
The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 7.0 goals, with the favored side being the Under at -115, while the Over is offering -105 odds. Both of these teams sit in the Top 6 in league scoring and have seen Overs go 46-32-2 combined this year. I expect another busy night for the lamp operators.
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Red Wings are 10-11 straight up this year while on the road. Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs.
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Red Wings vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, January 14, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSDET, Sportsnet Ontario |
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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