Sabres vs Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Alex Tuchs In the Buds

We’ve got three games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an Atlantic Division showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Buffalo Sabres.

This matchup has given us some fireworks over the year with many high-scoring games. I believe we’ll see another one tonight despite the NHL odds favoring the Under, and I think Alex Tuch will play a big role in the Sabres’ offense. 

Find out why in my free NHL picks for the Sabres vs. Maple Leafs on March 6.

Sabres vs Maple Leafs odds

Sabres vs Maple Leafs predictions

If there’s anything I’ve learned about this matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres, we should be expecting a lot of goals. The Under has hit just once over the last 10 games between these two clubs, with Buffalo averaging 4.8 goals per game over this stretch. 

That trend has been alive and well this season with the Sabres having outscored Toronto 15-7 in the two previous meetings. Buffalo has won three in a row and seven of the last 10 against the Buds, despite the Sabres not being an elite team. 

One player in particular who has been a big part of these offensive eruptions has been Sabres' forward Alex Tuch, whose point total is set at 0.5 tonight with the Over paying -125. 

Death, taxes, and Alex Tuch torching the Leafs. That seems to be a motto worth adapting for games involving these two clubs, considering the Buffalo winger has a point in six straight games against Toronto where he’s totaled 13 points. He’s also recorded at least one point in seven of the eight games he’s played against the Leafs since being traded to Buffalo in the Eichel deal.

Additionally, Tuch is playing on the Sabres' top line with top power play minutes. This is significant since Buffalo has scored on the man advantage in five straight games and seven of its last eight. Whereas the Toronto's penalty kill ranks 27th in the NHL over its last 10 games with just a 72% kill rate. 

So whether it’s on the power play or at 5-on-5, Tuch should have ample opportunity to get on the score sheet, extend those streaks, and cash the Over on his points total. 

My best bet: Alex Tuch Over 0.5 points (-125 at SIA)

Sabres vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay

Sabres Over 2.5 goals

Over 6.5

Matthews anytime goalscorer

+230 at SIA

For leg one of my same-game parlay, I’ll roll with the Sabres going Over their team total of 2.5. Buffalo has enjoyed immense success offensively against Toronto, averaging 4.8 goals in the last 10 meetings and going Over 2.5 goals in nine of them. That includes both games earlier this season when the Sabres scored six and nine goals respectively. 

I'm also taking the Over tonight of 6.5. These games have historically been very high-scoring, as both teams have filled the net in this matchup. In fact, the total has gone Over 6.5 in nine of the last 10 games overall between these two, and I expect another goal fest here tonight once again with both sides boasting subpar blue lines and below-average goaltending.

For my final leg, I’ll bet on an anytime goal for Auston Matthews. Much like Tuch, Matthews has had a lot of recent success in this matchup, as he’s found the back of the net five times in the last three games against the Sabres. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Sabres vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight as -190 favorites, with the Sabres getting plus money (+155) on the road. The Leafs should win this game, as they have a clear-cut better team on paper. However, that has been the case for years, and Buffalo has found continued success against Toronto. At that price, I’d probably stay away from taking the Buds on the moneyline as the value is certainly on the Sabres. 

The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals, shading towards the Under at -115, with the Over giving -105 odds. Historically, the Over has been the play with this matchup, as nine of the last 10 games have seen seven or more goals scored in the game. I expect that to continue as both teams struggle to keep pucks out of the net and have the ability to score multiple goals each. 

Sabres vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Sabres have covered the puck line in 27 of their last 41 road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Sabres vs. Maple Leafs.

Sabres vs Maple Leafs game info

Sabres vs Maple Leafs latest injuries

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