There’s only one Premier League game on Saturday, but Aston Villa vs. Arsenal is a very intriguing matchup. Both teams had difficult starts to the season but now feel like they’ve taken a leap forward and are now looking to the future.
When these two clubs meet, who’ll come out on top?
Here are our free EPL soccer picks and predictions for Aston Villa vs. Arsenal and predictions, with kickoff set for March 19.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal betting tips
- Prediction: Arsenal (+137)
- Prediction: Over 2.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Jacob Ramsey to score first (+1,600)
Predictions made on 3/18/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Aston Villa vs Arsenal game info
• Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
• Date: Saturday, March 19, 2022
• Time: 8:30 a.m. ET
• TV: USA Network, DAZN
Aston Villa vs Arsenal betting preview
Weather
It’s going to be glorious March weather when this game kicks off at 12:30 p.m. local time. Temperatures in the mid-50s and sunny, clear skies.
Injuries
Aston Villa: Lucas Digne LB (Out), Kortney Hause CB (Out), Douglas Luiz CM (Probable), Marvelous Nakamba CM (Out).
Arsenal: Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (Probable).
Aston Villa vs Arsenal predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Steven Gerrard and Mikel Arteta met many times as players, with Gerrard a Liverpool legend and Arteta playing for their biggest rivals in Everton and Arsenal.
On Saturday, they meet as Premier League managers with both of their teams picking up plaudits in the past couple of months. Aston Villa started the season badly following the sale of Jack Grealish to Man City and an influx of new signings. Dean Smith paid for their slow start with his job and was soon replaced by Gerrard.
The players looked lifted by his arrival and the team started to claw their way up the Premier League table. The January transfer window was perhaps Gerrard’s finest hour, with the loan signing of his former Liverpool teammate Phillipe Coutinho bringing glamour to the club and showcasing the star power of their new manager.
Arteta, sitting opposite him in the dugout on Saturday, has also come out of the January transfer window looking good. At the start of the season, a large percentage of the Arsenal fanbase wanted the Spaniard to be sacked, but he weathered the storm and the team showed signs of improvement. In January he got rid of problematic star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, a loss in terms of talent, but it seems to have galvanized the team and showed everyone that he’s the boss now.
Arsenal are currently fourth in the Premier League table and are in pole position to seal Champions League football next season. The Gunners are spots higher than Villa, having won four of their past five, but Villa are playing well of late and will want to finish the season well and build the groundwork for next year.
We’ll see a largely familiar team with Ashley Young at left back due to Lucas Digne’s absence. The midfield three write themselves with young Jacob Ramsey joining John McGinn and Douglas Luiz as the workers that give Aston Villa’s artists the platform on which to create.
Given the opposition on Saturday, you’d expect Danny Ings to drop to the bench leaving Ollie Watkins as the sole frontman, which would allow Emi Buendia to join Coutinho in that attacking midfield role and also offer a little bit more defensive strength than playing two up top.
It'll be a 4-2-3-1 for Arteta’s Gunners as it has been all season. They’ve been great defensively this season, with the fifth-best record in the league and a big part of that has been Ben White, who is blossoming into a magical talent since arriving from Brighton. He’s earned a recall to the England squad and will need to be on his best to snuff out the chances created by Coutinho.
As always we’ll see Alexandre Lacazette up top for Arsenal. The Frenchman isn’t prolific in front of goal but he’s at his best-bringing others into play and linking up well with the front three behind him.
The Gunners have won their last four games on the road and will come into this full of confidence. Villa are a very capable team and they could upset Arsenal, but it’s unlikely and the +137 available on the North London side is well worth taking.
Prediction: Arsenal (+137)
Over/Under analysis
The bookies aren’t sure which way the Over/Under will go, as evidenced by both sides being priced at -110. It’s certainly a tough one to call but if you follow trends then you’ll want to back the Over.
We’ve seen Over 2.5 goals in six of Aston Villa’s past seven games at home and also six goals in Arsenal’s past seven on the road. That pretty much sums up how both teams are playing of late.
The trends extend over the course of the season too with Villa going Over 2.5 in 69.2% of games at Villa Park. Likewise, Arsenal goes Over 2.5 in 58.3% of their away games. With no real feeling on either side, I’d recommend backing the Over.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-110)
Best bet
Normally when I write my best bet, I suggest the wager that I think is the most likely to win, but sometimes it’s about finding the best value odds. In this case, it’s the latter.
This +1,600 bet is one of those bets that isn’t a certainty to cash, but is great value at a huge price. I’m backing Arsenal to win this game, but you can see with my choice of backing Over 2.5 goals that I think there’s a good chance we could see Aston Villa get on the scoresheet here.
With that in mind, we have to ask ourselves who and one name leaps out. Young English midfielder Jacob Ramsey has been a revelation this season and has scored six Premier League goals from central midfield. That’s only one less than Villa striker Watkins and one more than Watkins’ strike partner Ings.
England manager Gareth Southgate has confirmed that he’s been looking at Ramsey as a potential call-up to the national team soon. Ings and Watkins are +600 and +700 respectively to score the first goal of the game, which immediately makes Ramsey’s +1,600 look very generous.
It’s true that Coutinho’s arrival has resulted in him taking up less advanced positions, but he’s still averaging over a shot per game and the juicy price is just too big to not have a small wager on.
Pick: Jacob Ramsey to score first (+1,600)
