We’ve got Aston Villa vs. Chelsea on Wednesday as both teams meet in an FA Cup replay to find out who’ll find Championship opposition in the fifth round.
The first matchup at Stamford Bridge finished 0-0 but Chelsea have given up eight goals in two losses since then.
Can Chelsea get their season back on track with a big FA Cup win or will Aston Villa’s impressive season continue? Read our Aston Villa vs. Chelsea free betting picks below to find out.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea best odds
 Aston Villa |
 Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| +117 | Moneyline | +225 |
| +270 | Draw | +270 |
| Over 2.5 (-137) | Total | Under 2.5 (+117) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on February 6, 2024.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea picks and predictions
It’s the time of the season for FA Cup replays with big games added into the midweek schedule, and none are bigger than Wednesday’s Aston Villa vs. Chelsea clash.
It’s an all-Premier League meeting with the winner set to face Championship opposition in the fifth round. That game will be at home, meaning the winner of this should fancy their chances of progressing deep into this year’s FA Cup.
The first leg at Stamford Bridge finished 0-0 at the tail end of January. It was a dull affair, with Chelsea dominating possession but doing very little with it and Villa having more shots and more on target, but ultimately leaving without the win. That sets up nicely for the replay and my best bet for the game.
We’re backing Aston Villa to win for several reasons. The most obvious — and more important — is sheer quality. They say the table doesn’t lie and a look at the Premier League table shows us that after 23 games, Aston Villa have approximately 50% more points than Chelsea, with 46 to the London team’s 31.
Chelsea hasn’t even hit double-digit wins yet and they also have a negative goal difference, which is virtually unheard of for them. They’ve scored 11 goals less than Villa and let in nine more at the other end.
It's been a difficult start for Mauricio Pochettino, with injuries and bedding in new signings but he currently has a collection of players — not a team — which is very much the antithesis of what Unai Emery has achieved at Villa.
Make no mistake, this Aston Villa side has some very good players but they’re not at the level of Chelsea’s players, at least on paper. However, soccer isn’t played on paper and Emery’s built a real team, a cohesive unit who are better than the sum of their parts — and one that should beat Chelsea.
There's also Chelsea’s form to consider. It had looked like they’d started to get things together in the last month but since these teams last met, they’ve been heavily beaten twice, giving up eight goals and looking useless in the process.
They've also been terrible away from home of late. They’ve had two clean sheets on the road in the league all season and the most recent of those was at the beginning of October. They have just four road wins in the league and are allowing just under two goals per game in those matches.
With Aston Villa’s quality, incredible unity, and home advantage, I expect them to beat a Chelsea team that is still struggling to find its identity under its new manager. Getting Villa at plus money feels like a real win for us as bettors.
My best bet: Aston Villa to win (+110 at TonyBet)
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Aston Villa vs Chelsea same-game parlay
Aston Villa to win
Both teams to score: Yes
Ollie Watkins to score or assist
Alongside our best bet of Aston Villa to win, we’re going to add a further two legs, the first of which is for both teams to score. While Chelsea have really struggled this season and I expect them to lose, they will probably score.
Despite giving up eight goals in their past two games, they’ve still managed to score three times. They’ve also scored in all but two Premier League games on the road this season. Their issue has generally been getting outscored, not that they haven’t managed to find the back of the net themselves.
We’re also going to back Aston Villa’s English striker Ollie Watkins to either score or assist. He’s followed up a great season last year with another and through 23 league games, he’s got 11 goals and 10 assists, becoming as much of a creator as a goalscorer.
He’s essential to how Emery sets this team up and with six goal contributions in his past six games in all competitions, he has a very good chance of adding to that against a forgiving Chelsea defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea side and Over/Under analysis
We’ll keep the moneyline analysis brief, given my best bet for Aston Villa to win, but I believe you’re getting very good value on that result when you consider how poorly Chelsea have played in their past two games. The London side is available at +230, with the draw the heftiest choice at +270.
We should see goals here. Both teams to score comes in at -167 and Over 2.5 goals is a very appealing -143. I’m backing both options and it’s worth noting there have been Over 2.5 goals in all but three of Chelsea’s away games in the league this season and all but three of Aston Villa’s at home.
If you do think we see a low-scoring game, much like the first meeting, you can get Under 2.5 at +115.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Aston Villa vs Chelsea game info
| Location: | Villa Park, Birmingham, England |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 7, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
| Weather: | Cold but calm conditions, 38F. |
Aston Villa vs Chelsea key injuries
Aston Villa: Emiliano Buendia FWR (Out), Tyrone Mings CB (Out), Jhon Duran STR (Out), Lucas Digne LB (Questionable), Pau Torres CB (Questionable).
Chelsea: Robert Sanchez GK (Out), Marc Cucurella LB (Out), Welsey Fofana CB (Out), Trevor Chalobah CB (Out), Reece James RB (Out), Romeo Lavia CM (Out).
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