Borussia Dortmund seeks to claim the top prize in European club football for the first time when they take on 14-time champions Real Madrid in today's Champions League final.
Dortmund arrives at Wembley having outlasted PSG in the semifinals by a 2-0 aggregate score, while Real Madrid survived a back-and-forth affair against Bayern Munich.
How will that affect our Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid predictions? Find out in our free picks for June 1.
Be sure to check out our Dortmund vs. Real Madrid player props for more in-depth plays.
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid picks and predictions
My best bet:
Highest scoring half — second half (+102 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Champions League finals tend to be cagey affairs, which explains why the last four have each ended with a 1-0 final scoreline. And when you dive deeper into those trends, as well as evaluate the two teams involved, you understand why we’re likely to see history repeat itself on Saturday.
Of the aforementioned last four finals, three of them have seen the solitary goal scored after the halftime intermission. Last season, Manchester City needed almost 70 minutes to find their lone tally. The previous year saw Real Madrid win their 14th trophy after Vinicius Jr. found the back of the net just shy of the hour mark.
And that makes sense. This is the crown jewel of club football, the trophy so many players grow up dreaming of lifting. They’re going to lay their bodies on the line at the defensive end. They’re going to take fewer risks when there’s no reason to do so. You have veterans on each squad who have won at the highest level both internationally and for their club, who know what it takes to reach the summit.
But even if someone scores in the first half, these two clubs have shown what they’re capable of after the break. Dortmund reached the final via a pair of 1-0 wins, the second of which saw them score just a few minutes after halftime. But in their quarter-final second leg against Atletico Madrid, four of the six goals scored came after halftime.
For Los Blancos, the overwhelming favorites, the second half has been the time to tune in. Through their six knockout-stage matches, 13 of the 18 goals scored have come after halftime. That includes six of the seven goals in their two legs against Bayern, as Real Madrid got two goals from Joselu in the closing minutes to secure their place in the final.
Five of the last seven Champions League finals have seen more goals after halftime than before, and this one shouldn’t be any different. Real Madrid’s defense is staunch, with clean sheets in three of their last four in league play, and the return of Thibaut Courtois is huge. They’ll need time to break down the Dortmund defense, and I see a scoreless first half with all scoring coming after the break.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid same-game parlay (SGP)
Highest scoring half — Second Half
Both teams to score — No
Real Madrid moneyline
The last five Champions League finals have ended with only one team scoring a goal, and this one is likely to be no different. The return of Courtois gives Madrid one of the best keepers in the world, who has experience of making ridiculous saves in this competition. He’s tall enough to claim the ball against Dortmund’s big targets on set pieces, which is how Dortmund got their only goal in the second leg against PSG.
It’s also just one of the reasons why Real Madrid will win this one in regulation. PSG had an xG of over three goals in the second leg against Dortmund, and the Parisian attack overwhelmed Dortmund. Without the Yellow Wall behind them, it’s hard to see them finding a way to outclass arguably the best team in the world and a manager in Carlo Ancelotti who lives for big matches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid odds
 Borussia Dortmund |
 Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| +440 | Moneyline | -167 |
| +333 | Draw | +333 |
| Over 2.5 (-135) | Total | Under 2.5 (+112) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
- Real Madrid are heavy favorites on the 3-way money line. Your best price for a Los Blancos victory is -167 with little movement. Dortmund’s price has shot from +375 to +440, with the draw staying strong at +333.
- Real Madrid are 25 unbeaten in all competitions, with 17 victories in that span, and haven’t lost in the competition. Dortmund are 6W-1D-4L in their L11 but have won four of their last five Champions League fixtures.
- The total sees the Over 2.5 favored at -135, while the Under pays out at +112.
- The historical trend means the Under offers strong value. The last five finals have finished Under, with the last four each ending 1-0.
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid game info
| Location: | Wembley Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-1-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Weather: | Text |
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid key injuries
Borussia Dortmund: Sebastian Haller F (Doubtful), Ramy Bensebaini D (Out), Julien Duranville F (Doubtful).
Real Madrid: Aurelian Tchouameni M (Out), David Alaba D (Out), Andrii Lunin GK (Doubtful).
Not intended for use in MA.
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