The FA Cup returns this week with two semi-finals taking place at Wembley Stadium. The first of those is Manchester City vs Sheffield United, with the winner of that one facing the winner of Brighton vs Manchester United in June.
Man City are overwhelming favorites, but can championship club Sheffield United shock the world and win? Don’t miss our Manchester City vs Sheffield United betting picks and predictions for Saturday, April 22.
Man City vs Sheffield United best odds
| Man City | Sheffield United | |
|---|---|---|
| -700 | Moneyline | +1400 |
| +800 | Draw | +800 |
| Over 2.5 (-300) | Total | Under 2.5 (+240) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on April 21, 2023.
Man City vs Sheffield United picks and predictions
The FA Cup is the greatest domestic cup competition on the planet — a truly brilliant tournament which sees the potential for the smallest of clubs to face heavyweights of the game. Championship team Sheffield United aren’t that small of a team, having been a Premier League team recently, but this game against Pep Guardiola’s Man City is a real David and Goliath battle.
One thing the FA Cup has become so well known for across the world are the “giant killings” we see each season, with massive clubs humbled by those who are, in theory, inferior. Make no mistake, if Sheffield United secure a passage to the FA Cup Final here, this would be one of the great shocks of the modern era.
This is a Manchester City team whom we’ve grown accustomed to seeing win, as they have the best goal-scorer in Europe up front, one of the world’s finest creative midfielders, and a team worth billions. They’re battling for the Premier League title and have just secured a spot in the Champions League semi-finals, all while Sheffield United are hunting promotion back into the Premier League.
As the Championship table shows, Sheffield United — second in the league — are a very good side and should be gracing the Premier League again next season. Despite that, it’s unlikely they’ll win here. But our best bet for this Man City vs Sheffield United FA Cup semi is based around a simple idea — they are better than the oddsmakers think. This is why we’ll be backing the game to be tied at halftime, with Man City winning at fulltime, at juicy odds of +325.
Man City are -650 moneyline favorites, which implies an 86.7% chance that they win this game inside 90 minutes. I’d never personally bet it at those odds, but I actually think that’s a little bit low, and in my mind I’d put their chances of winning near 95%. However, this is a talented Sheffield United team, and they’ll be far tougher to break down than people think.
Sheffield United simply don’t have the player to go toe-to-toe with Man City. They can’t outplay them in that manner. For Sheffield to win, they need to showcase their defensive ability, and then hit Man City on the counter and score. With that in mind, it’s likely we’ll see them set up defensively and play cautiously, something which really increases the chances of a draw at halftime. This is a team who have allowed just 36 goals in 42 Championship games this season, the second-best record in that league.
Another aspect in Sheffield United’s favor could be overconfidence. The Man City players probably feel that they should win this easily, but more importantly, there’s a chance that with the Premier League potentially being decided next Wednesday against Arsenal, they might rest their star players like Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland.
Even if Man City do start some of their key men on the bench, this is still a brilliantly assembled team full of truly elite players, but it might take them a little longer to break down than usual. It’s hard to find real value on this game, and backing the draw at halftime and City at fulltime might be one of the best prices available.
My best bet: Draw/Man City — Halftime/Fulltime (+325 at PointsBet)
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Man City vs Sheffield United side analysis
It’s always hard to pick a Pep Guardiola team, with any lineup subject to “Pep roulette,” but this FA Cup semi-final screams of rotation. With City hosting Arsenal on Wednesday, in a game which will likely decide the Premier League winner, it would be wise for Guardiola to give some players a rest.
For that reason, I think it’s probable that Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, Rodri, and Jack Grealish start on the bench. They’re too important to this team, and Man City should win anyway. Phil Foden was an unused sub against Bayern Munich last week, and this is likely the perfect opportunity to get him back up to speed for the title run-in. Julian Alvarez needs starts too, and this is perfect for him.
We might also see changes defensively with Aymeric Laporte and Kyle Walker both being names who could probably do with time on the field, in addition to Kevin Phillips at the base of the midfield.
For Sheffield United, they’ll be without two Man City players, with loanees James McAtee and Tommy Doyle both unavailable to play against their parent club. Both are talented players who have really excelled this season, and it’s a big concern.
The attacking duo of Iliman Ndiaye and Oliver McBurnie are going to need to be at their very best to find goalscoring chances against this Man City team. Both men are capable, and Ndiaye in particular will relish the chance to play against this quality of opposition. Oliver Norwood is integral to the team’s midfield, and him and his two partners in the middle of the park will have a very tough day against a team who have incredible movement both on and off the ball.
This is a hugely difficult game for Sheffield United, and although I can’t see them winning, I can see them keeping Man City at bay long enough for our halftime/fulltime bet to cash.
Man City vs Sheffield United Over/Under analysis
The total goals market isn’t one that I’d recommend wagering on in this game. Over 2.5 goals comes in at -280, but if you’re feeling like it might be low-scoring, then you can grab the Under at +245. I think there is a slight chance that City win this 1-0 or 2-0, especially if my best bet of Draw/City comes in, but I’m not going to wager on it here.
Man City have had Over 2.5 goals in 88.7% of their Premier League games at the Etihad this season, but on the flip side of that, you could argue that Sheffield United having Over 2.5 goals in 7.4% of their Championship games away from home is a reason to back the Under.
Given the huge gulf in quality between these two leagues, I’d rather just avoid trying to find an answer in this data, and instead skip betting on this market.
Man City vs Sheffield United game info
| Location: | Wembley Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Saturday, April 22, 2023 |
| Time: | 11:45 a.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Man City vs Sheffield United key injuries
Man City: Nathan Ake CB (Questionable)
Sheffield United: Ben Osborn CM (Out), Rihan Brewster STR (Out), Rhys Norrington-Davies CB (Out), Enda Stevens LM (Out), James McAtee CM (Out), Tommy Doyle CM (Out)
Man City vs Sheffield United weather
Temperatures will be in the mid 50s, with Manchester’s sky looking dry but cloudy.
