Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Predictions & Picks for Saturday’s EPL Matchup

The final Premier League game on Saturday’s slate takes us to the City Ground with Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa, both level on points.

They share the exact same record, and both have forwards in great form, which is why our Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa predictions see us backing the Over 2.5. 

Be sure to read my Premier League picks for Saturday, December 14, with kickoff at 12:30 p.m. ET on NBC or Peacock Premium.

EPL predictions for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa

My best bet:
Over 2.5 (-114 at TonyBet)

My analysis
Forest and Villa are fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Premier League table heading into the weekend. Both teams are level on points and have identical records, with Saturday’s hosts ahead by one goal on goal difference. The winner of this game will be fifth and in the Europa League group state spot by themselves.

If you look at Nottingham Forest’s brilliant season, you’d know it’s largely been a product of an excellent defense, a defense that's frustrated teams before giving their attackers a platform to snatch the win and three points. Nuno Espirito Santo’s team has allowed just 18 goals in 15 games, tied for the third-best record in the Premier League. 

Despite some incredible defensive performances, the reality is that their games have begun to see a lot more goals. In August, September, and October, we saw Forest play nine of their 15 Premier League games, and seven of those games finished Under 2.5. In that timeframe, the team conceded just seven goals and scored 11.

In the six games since, we’ve seen the Over 2.5 land five times. In those six games, they’ve allowed 11 goals and scored eight. They’re scoring at a higher rate but also conceding far more goals. That's in part down to the scheduling, which has seen them face Newcastle, Arsenal, Man City, and Manchester United over that span, but it also indicates that teams have figured this team out. 

We’ve seen the Over 2.5 land in six of the past seven Premier League games for Forest. With Villa featuring either Ollie Watkins, fitness permitting, or Jhon Duran up front, they are more than capable of scoring in bunches. They’ve scored an average of 1.5 goals per game and are conceding the same. 

We've seen 3+ goals scored in 10 of Aston Villa’s 15 Premier League games so far this season, but if you look closer, the home-away split is huge. They’ve played seven games away from Villa Park, and all but one game has seen at least three goals.

There have been 24 goals scored across those seven road games for Villa, and they’ve let their opponent score in every single one of their road trips, which is bad news with Chris Wood in such fine form. Both Forest and Villa have strikers in good form, and the data shows that plenty of goals have been scored in the majority of their recent games. 

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa same-game parlay (SGP)

Over 2.5

Both teams to score — Yes

Chris Wood anytime goalscorer

+300 at TonyBet

We’re also going to back both teams to score. We’ve seen this land consistently in Aston Villa games this season but that increases on the road when we’ve seen both teams finding the back of the net in five of seven games.

The final leg has to be backing Chris Wood to score. The New Zealander is having a career season and has already racked up 10 Premier League goals in 15 appearances. He’s the perfect striker to finish off chances in this Forest team and comes into this on the back of a great performance (including a goal) against Manchester United last weekend.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa odds

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa live odds

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa opening odds

• Moneyline: Nottingham Forest +165 | Aston Villa +170
• Draw: +245
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa side and Over/Under analysis

• The two clubs have the same record this season. Both are sat on 25 points with seven wins, four draws, and four defeats.
  
  
• Aston Villa have won their past two Premier League games. Forest have won two of their last three.
  
  
• 28.6% of Forest’s home games have had Over 2.5 goals. 85.7% of Villa’s away games have had Over 2.5 goals.
  
  
• These teams have met four times over the past 2.5 seasons, with Villa winning two, Forest one, and one tie.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa game info

Location:	The City Ground, Nottingham, England
Date:	Saturday, 12-14-2024
Time:	12:30 p.m. ET
TV:	NBC
Weather:	44F, 9 mph winds, 0% PoP.
recent EPL form	W-L-W-L-L
recent EPL form	W-W-L-D-L

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa key injuries

Nottingham Forest: Danilo CM (Out), Ibrahim Sangare CM (Out), Alex Moreno LB (Out).
Aston Villa: Jacob Ramsey CM (Out), Ollie Watkins FWR (Questionable), Leon Bailey FWR (Questionable).

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