Gilbert Burns vs. Khamzat Chimaev is on the main card for UFC 273 betting for tonight.
Even with two championship bouts scheduled for this pay-per-view event, this might be the most highly-anticipated fight of the night with the hype train of Chimaev facing the biggest test of his career.
UFC betting lines opened with "Borz" as a -350 favorite before shifting all the way to -500, while the former welterweight title challenger in Burns comes back at +380.
Here are our best free Burns vs. Chimaev picks and predictions for UFC 273 on April 9, from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.
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Burns vs Chimaev fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Burns vs Chimaev method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Gilbert Burns | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,200 | +125 |
| To win by Points | +700 | +360 |
| To win by Submission | +1,400 | +300 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Burns vs Chimaev picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Burns vs Chimaev betting preview
Gilbert "Durinho" Burns is coming off a unanimous decision victory against Stephen Thompson where he used his pressure and grappling to control the highly-skilled distance striker.
Burns is 7-1 in the octagon since December of 2018, with his only loss during that span coming in an unsuccessful title challenge of champ Kamaru Usman last year. The No. 2 ranked welterweight contender fought at lightweight for much of his earlier career but has looked more explosive and durable since moving up to 170 pounds.
The 35-year-old began his MMA career as a world-class BJJ practitioner and grappling specialist but has vastly improved his striking under the tutelage of renowned kickboxing coach Henri Hooft.
Khamzat "Borz" Chimaev is No. 11 in the welterweight rankings and is coming off a first-round submission win against Li Jingliang last October. Jingliang was the first ranked fighter that Borz had faced and he steamrolled him just like every other foe he has ever squared off against.
Chimaev is a perfect 10-0 in his MMA career and has racked up four wins and four Performance of the Night bonuses since joining the UFC. The 27-year-old has been incredibly dominant in the octagon, landing 112 significant strikes while absorbing just one.
Also competing at middleweight, Chimaev has incredible strength for this division and is an elite wrestler with heavy hands and brutal ground-and-pound.
Burns vs Chimaev tale of the tape
| Gilbert Burns | Khamzat Chimaev | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 27 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot-2 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 20-4 | Record | 10-0 |
Burns vs Chimaev UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Chimaev (-500 at Bet365)
Burns is an experienced contender who combines heavy hands with pressure and elite grappling, but it's hard to see him having much success in those areas against Chimaev.
Sure, Borz hasn't fought elite competition, but it's not like he's simply beating the guys he's faced.
He's dominated them in an unprecedented manner. Chimaev's strength is incredible and he's big enough that he also fights at 185 pounds and has won the Swedish Freestyle National Championship in wrestling at 202 pounds.
That's bad news for Burns who is on the smaller side for a welterweight and will likely have to abandon the wrestling part of his gameplan.
Chimaev might also be a bit underrated when it comes to his stand up game, mostly because we haven't seen him do much in the way of distance striking.
But what we have seen is scary. He knocked out veteran middleweight Gerald Meerschaert with a single punch and also starched Ikram Aliskerov in Brave CF.
Aliskerov might not be a well-known name in the west but he's 12-1 in his MMA career and is a four-time combat sambo world champion, so being able to drop him with a clean uppercut is pretty damn impressive. Wherever this fight goes, Borz should have the advantage with his size, strength, and power.
Best bet: Chimaev by KO/TKO, DQ or submission (-180 at DraftKings)
While Chimaev should be able to win, the closing odds for this fight are way too lopsided to even consider. Keep in mind that Borz closed at virtually the same number against Jingliang, and while he demolished him, Burns is on another level.
Burns was very much a live dog at +220 against Usman and although he got knocked out in the third round, he had plenty of success in the first. Seeing Durinho at nearly a 4:1 underdog against Chimaev makes little sense when this is easily Chimaev's toughest opponent to date and he has never fought for longer than seven minutes.
How will Chimaev deal with adversity, and does he have the cardio to go the distance if he has to? We simply don't know.
It's tempting to take the more proven Burns at this moneyline price but if we had to make a wager on this bout, we'll lean towards backing Borz inside the distance which is still available at better than -200 at some books.
