Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres is on the main card for UFC 273 betting tonight.
This will be a pivotal matchup between a pair of Top 10 strawweight fighters looking to move up in a very competitive women's division. Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight with UFC betting lines having this bout set as a pick'em.
Here are our best free Dern vs. Torres picks and predictions for UFC 273 on April 9, from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.
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Dern vs Torres fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Dern vs Torres method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Torres |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,200 | +650 |
| To win by Points | +340 | +162 |
| To win by Submission | +250 | +1,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Dern vs Torres picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Dern vs Torres betting preview
Mackenzie Dern is the No. 5-ranked women's strawweight contender and will try to bounce back from a unanimous decision loss to Marina Rodriguez in October. That defeat snapped a four-fight winning streak for the 29-year-old.
Dern actually headlined the event and while she lost by scores of 49-46 across the board, she did earn a Fight of the Night bonus for her efforts.
Dern has power in her hands and a solid chin but she is at her best on the mat. A former ADCC and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion, she is an elite grappler and four of her last five wins have come by way of submission.
The "Tony Tornado" Tecia Torres is on a three-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Angela Hill by decision last August.
It's been a hard road back to relevancy for Torres after she dropped four in a row earlier in her career (albeit against the top fighters in the division), but she has now surged back to No. 7 in the strawweight rankings.
The 32-year-old is at her best on her feet, where she can use her speed to move in and out of range while stringing together combinations.
Dern vs Torres tale of the tape
| Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-1 |
| 115 lbs | Weight | 115 lbs |
| 63 inches | Reach | 60.5 inches |
| 11-2 | Record | 13-5 |
Dern vs Torres UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Torres (-110 at Bet365)
This bout will come down to which of these two can get this fight where they want it. While Dern is an elite grappler, her offensive wrestling needs work and she's had a tough time taking down opponents in the past.
Although Torres is a small fighter that needs to close distance, she has decent wrestling and has the fight IQ to avoid mistakes such as rolling on the ground with a BJJ specialist.
Torres does a great job of avoiding mistakes and has never been finished. While she has lost five times in her career, each of those went the distance and all were against the top fighters in the division like Rodriguez, Zhang Weili, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Jéssica Andrade, and Rose Namajunas.
Unless Torres gets submitted, I don't see her losing this and if she does get taken down, I think she'll be able to fight to her feet. Expect the Tiny Tornado to keep this fight standing up where her speed, volume, and striking will be too much for Dern to overcome.
Best bet: Torres to win by decision (+162 at Bet365)
Torres opened as a slim favorite in this one and after money came in on the popular Dern, she now sits at -110. That's good value on the moneyline play but we'd also consider this method to win prop at plus money.
Torres isn't much of a finisher with 11 of her 13 career wins coming by decision. A win by submission also seems extremely unlikely against an elite BJJ practitioner like Dern, so we'll take her to win on points at +162.
