Vinc Pichel vs. Mark Madsen is on the main card for UFC 273 betting for tonight.
This should be a good scrap between a pair of unranked but highly competitive lightweights that was moved up to the main card after a bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Dricus Du Plessis was canceled.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight with UFC betting lines opening with Pichel as a -163 fave before shortening to -138, while Madsen comes back as the slim underdog at +110.
Here are our best free Pichel vs. Madsen picks and predictions for UFC 273 on April 9 from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.
Editor's note: Ontario! Welcome to the world of regulated sports betting. Visit our Ontario sports betting page for the best legal betting sites available to you and all the information you need about this emerging industry.
Pichel vs Madsen fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Pichel vs Madsen method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Vinc Pichel | Mark O. Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +340 | +650 |
| To win by Points | +170 | +280 |
| To win by Submission | +900 | +950 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Pichel vs Madsen picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for UFC betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Make DraftKings your sportsbook of choice for the UFC. Sign up now and get a first deposit bonus up to $1,000. Claim Now
B) Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Pichel vs Madsen betting preview
Vinc "From Hell" Pichel has won three fights in a row, most recently defeating Austin Hubbard by unanimous decision last August. Pichel is 7-1 in his last eight UFC bouts, although that stretch runs all the way back to 2014 since he was sidelined for three years due to injuries and isn't the most active fighter.
Despite being 39 years old, Pichel has excellent cardio and is a solid striker who mixes up kicks at range with punches in the pocket.
Mark Madsen is a perfect 11-0 in his MMA career, including 3-0 in the octagon (which includes a decision win of his own against Hubbard two years ago).
In his last bout last August, he picked up a split decision victory against Clay Guida when he defeated the longtime UFC fighter by outstriking him at distance and in the clinch.
Madsen didn't land a single takedown in that bout, which is surprising because the former Olympic silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling is generally reliant on his ground game. The 37-year-old is an elite wrestler but has shown plenty of grit and toughness as a striker despite a limited skillset.
Pichel vs Madsen tale of the tape
| Vinc Pichel | Mark O. Madsen | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 37 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 156 lbs |
| 72 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 14-2 (8 KOs) | Record | 11-0 (3 KOs) |
Pichel vs Madsen UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Madsen (+110)
As an unrefined striker, Madsen needs to get back to his wrestling after attempting just one takedown versus Guida. But Guida is a good wrestler and a slippery opponent to deal with, while Pichel has weak takedown defense.
In Pichel's last defeat, he was taken down seven times and submitted in the second round by another high-end wrestler in Gregor Gillespie (albeit also a more well-rounded fighter than Madsen).
In three fights since then, Pichel's been taken down a total of eight times but has usually just scrambled back up to his feet. He won't be able to pull that off against someone like Madsen who has the strength and technique to take and hold him down long enough to win rounds.
Best bet: Fight to go the distance - Yes (-156 at FanDuel)
Although I think Madsen will get the win as a short dog, I think one of the safest bets of the night is banking on this fight to go the distance.
Pichel has some pop in his hands but isn't a finisher, and his last four victories have all come by decision.
Meanwhile, Madsen's previous two fights — and five of his last seven — went the distance. Madsen is a fantastic wrestler but he isn't much of a submission threat on the mat and he doesn't have the most effective ground and pound.
I would put the chances of this fight going the full 15 minutes at around 75% which gives value to this prop which is priced in the neighborhood of -156 to -165 at most books, an implied probability of about 62%.
