Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan is on the main card for UFC 273 betting for tonight.
This rematch will be for the bantamweight title after the current interim champ Yan was disqualified when these two previously fought last March. UFC betting lines opened with Yan as a -333 favorite before moving all the way to -500, while Sterling comes back at +350.
Here are our free UFC betting picks and predictions for Sterling vs. Yan 2 for UFC 273 on April 9, from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.
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Sterling vs Yan fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Sterling vs Yan method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Aljamain Sterling | Petr Yan |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,500 | +170 |
| To win by Points | +850 | +125 |
| To win by Submission | +850 | +1,000 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Sterling vs Yan picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sterling vs Yan betting preview
Aljamain "Funk Master" Sterling hasn't fought since that title challenge against Yan last year as he has been recovering from neck surgery.
Yan was in clear control of the first showdown, walking down Sterling with strikes while also outwrestling him, but illegally kneed him when he was downed near the end of the fourth round. Whether the fans like it or not, that gave Aljo his sixth win in a row and the bantamweight championship.
The Funk Master is long and athletic with terrific wrestling and slick submission skills. However, he has improved as a striker and has displayed a diverse use of kicks and the ability to switch stances.
Yan is fresh off a unanimous decision victory against Cory Sandhagen in October which won Fight of the Night honors and gave him the interim championship. That allowed Yan to bounce back from his first career UFC defeat when he was disqualified against Sterling.
Prior to that loss, the Russian had won 10 straight fights, including seven in a row since entering the promotion in 2018.
The 29-year-old has some of the best technical boxing in the UFC, with polished footwork, high volume, accurate combinations, and power in his hands.
Sterling vs Yan tale of the tape
| Aljamain Sterling | Petr Yan | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| 135 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 20-3 (2 KOs) | Record | 16-2 (7 KOs) |
Sterling vs Yan UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Yan (-500)
Sterling's sheer volume in the opening frame last year may have won him the opening round but his lack of power didn't do anything to make Yan afraid of him. Instead, Sterling started to gas after throwing his entire arsenal at Yan, and once Yan got his reads down he really took over the fight. Midway through the second round, Yan began to dominate Sterling in the striking exchanges and even outwrestled him.
That's the biggest problem for Aljo in this matchup. His wrestling and grappling should be his best path to victory but Yan actually seems to have the edge in that area. Sterling has a poor takedown percentage and was stuffed on 16 of 17 attempts against Yan last year. Meanwhile, Yan took Sterling down seven times and with his scrambling ability was never even remotely in danger on the mat.
Yan should be able to wear down and dismantle Aljo once again, even if he doesn't have anyone to corner him after his team was denied entry into the U.S.
Best bet: Yan by KO/TKO in Rd 3, 4, or 5 (+350)
We don't really see this fight going much differently than the first. It's not like Aljo has been able to add many wrinkles to his game since he's been sidelined while recovering from surgery. Although he'd be wise not to throw everything in his arsenal at Yan in the early going again, that's kind of been his MO for much of his UFC career and Yan is the opposite.
Yan has a very steady output and takes a little while to find his rhythm and figure out his opponent's moves. Then his volume, pressure, and pace allow him to take over in the later rounds. That lends value to this prop because while we don't necessarily see an early stoppage win for Yan, we could see him knocking out Aljo in the later rounds.
Yan is no stranger to hurting opponents with accumulated damage that builds over time. He forced Douglas Silva de Andrade's corner into throwing in the towel after the second round, knocked out Uriah Faber in the third, finished Jose Aldo with a brutal beating in the fifth, and knocked down Sandhagen in the third.
There wasn't much trash talk between these two prior to the first meeting but there seems to be bad blood now with plenty of barbs exchanged. That could make Yan even more motivated to stop Aljo inside the distance which is more likely to happen in the later rounds.
