Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili is on the main card for tonight's UFC 278 betting from the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah.
This is an intriguing bout between an all-time great trying to earn another title shot in Aldo and a fast-rising contender in Dvalishvili. UFC betting odds opened with Aldo as a -160 favorite, but the line has since jumped the fence with The King of Rio now the underdog at around +110 and Dvalishvili at -138.
Here are our best free Aldo vs. Dvalishvili picks and predictions for August 20.
Aldo vs Dvalishvili fight odds
Live odds courtesy of Betway.
Aldo vs Dvalishvili method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Jose Aldo | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +500 | +550 |
| To win by Points | +250 | +135 |
| To win by Submission | +1,500 | +1,200 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 18, 2022.
Aldo vs Dvalishvili picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Aldo vs Dvalishvili betting preview
Jose Aldo is the No. 3 ranked bantamweight contender and has won three fights in a row, most recently defeating Rob Font by decision in December. Aldo was outstruck 149-86 by the high-volume Font, but he landed the more damaging shots and controlled the fight on the mat leading to scores of 50-45, 50-45, and 49-46.
The Brazilian previously held the featherweight title and made seven successful title defenses before getting knocked out by Conor McGregor in spectacular fashion way back in 2015.
His career hit a skid with defeats against the best featherweights in the world. Still, after dropping down to bantamweight and suffering a brutal loss against Petr Yan two years ago, he has rebounded with decision wins versus Marlon Vera, Pedro Munhoz, and Font.
The 35-year-old is a terrific striker with crisp technical boxing and tremendous power in his kicks. He's also an underrated grappler that competed in the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship before making the move to MMA.
Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili is three spots behind Aldo in the bantamweight rankings and is coming off a second-round TKO victory against Marlon Moraes last September when he picked up the first Performance of the Night bonus of his UFC career.
The former Ring of Combat bantamweight champ lost his first two fights in the octagon but has since reeled off seven wins in a row, with six coming by decision.
The 31-year-old is an elite wrestler who is relentless with his takedowns and averages an incredible 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Aldo vs Dvalishvili tale of the tape
| Jose Aldo | Merab Dvalishvili | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 134 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 70 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 31-7 (17 KOs) | Record | 14-4 (3 KOs) |
Aldo vs Dvalishvili UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Aldo ML
This fight will essentially come down to whether Dvalishvili will be able to implement his wrestling. Although his pace and takedown attempts are nonstop, he isn't always effective at controlling guys on the mat.
Aldo is an excellent defensive wrestler with a 90% takedown defense, which is even more impressive when you consider the large sample size of that stat over his lengthy career. If he can stuff the first few takedown attempts, he should be able to piece up Dvalishvili on the feet.
Keep in mind that Moraes landed a flurry of power shots and almost finished Dvalishvili in the first round, but poor fight IQ led to him gassing out. There are obvious holes in Dvalishvili's striking, and When Aldo exploits them, he won't make the same mistake Moraes did.
Perhaps most impressive about Aldo is that he continues to evolve for a 35-year-old on the downswing of his career. He doesn't rely on leg kicks as much anymore, with Aldo having sharpened his boxing while also employing his grappling when needed.
That diverse toolbox gives him an advantage over the more one-dimensional Dvalishvili.
Prediction: Aldo moneyline (+114 at FanDuel)
Best bet: Aldo Moneyline
When Aldo went 3-6 between 2015 and 2020, many were quick to write off the former champ as washed up. However, five of those losses came against elite fighters in McGregor, Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski, and Yan. The sixth was also a split-decision defeat (ironically to Moraes) which looked like a robbery.
Aldo has essentially been a pick'em for each of his previous three fights and has dispatched more well-rounded bantamweights each time.
Dvalishvili is on an impressive winning streak but hasn't faced the same caliber of opponents with the exception of Moraes, who knocked him around the octagon for the first three minutes.
Oddsmakers were perhaps a tad too bullish on Aldo when he opened at -170, but now that he's the slim underdog, the betting value is firmly on him.
Pick: Aldo moneyline (+114 at FanDuel)
