Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold is on the main card for UFC 278 betting from the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah.
This is a chance to turn things around for Costa, who has lost back-to-back fights and didn't come close to making weight in his last bout. Rockhold was once the middleweight champ but hasn't fought since getting knocked out 37 months ago.
UFC betting odds opened with Costa as a -260 favorite and have grown to -340 with Rockhold coming back at +250. Here are our best Costa vs. Rockhold picks and predictions for tonight, August 20.
Costa vs Rockhold fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Costa vs Rockhold method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Paulo Costa | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | -160 | +1,100 |
| To win by Points | +500 | +550 |
| To win by Submission | +2,200 | +850 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 18, 2022.
Costa vs Rockhold picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Costa vs Rockhold betting preview
Paulo "The Eraser" Costa is entering the octagon for the first time since last October when he weighed in at 20 pounds over the middleweight limit — failing to even meet the catchweight of 195 he had agreed to days earlier.
Despite that complete lack of professionalism, he ended up putting on an entertaining tilt with No. 3 contender Marvin Vettori. Although he lost in a decision, he landed 163 significant strikes and took the fifth round on the scorecards.
That was the second loss in a row for Costa, who was picked apart with leg kicks and finished by punches when he challenged Israel Adesanya for the championship two years ago.
Prior to that title loss, Costa had a perfect 13-0 record, including five straight wins in the UFC. The Brazilian comes from a background in BJJ but prefers to mix it up on his feet and has tremendous power in his hands and body kicks. His first 12 MMA wins all came by stoppage inside of the first two rounds.
Luke Rockhold hasn't fought since the summer of 2019, when he made his light heavyweight debut and was starched by Jan Blachowicz in the second round. The 37-year-old is 1-3 in his last four fights, a skid that began when he lost his middleweight belt to Michael Bisping in 2016.
Rockhold had previously earned the title with a knockout win against Chris Weidman in 2015, which was the peak of a successful career that began with him quickly finishing foes in the now defunct Strikeforce organization.
In his prime, Rockhold was a very well-rounded fighter that used his length and kicking ability to strike at range, while his scrambling and jiu-jitsu made him a threat on the mat.
Costa vs Rockhold tale of the tape
| Paulo Costa | Luke Rockhold | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 37 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 205 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 72 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 13-2 (11 KO) | Record | 16-5 (6 KO) |
Costa vs Rockhold UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Costa ML
The biggest question bettors might have about Costa surrounds his mentality and motivation after showing up extremely overweight against Vettori. However, he's looked shredded in pictures this week. If he can't lose weight again and this fight is canceled, you'll get your money back at least.
Although Rockhold is an excellent grappler, his offensive wrestling is subpar, and he won't be able to implement his ground game against a brutally strong opponent such as Costa.
This fight will likely stay standing up where Rockhold's diminished chin won't be able to withstand Costa's explosiveness.
Rockhold has had a massive layoff and was too hittable even his in prime. That poor striking defense will be exploited by the pressure and power of Costa, and will see plenty of openings for his devastating body kick against Rockhold.
Prediction: Costa moneyline (-340 at FanDuel)
Best bet: Costa by KO/TKO
All five of Rockhold's career losses have been by KO/TKO, and three of his last four fights have ended with him getting knocked out.
Costa has tremendous power, and while he couldn't finish the highly-durable Vettori and Yoel Romero, he landed some heavy shots on both of them. A 37-year-old Rockhold simply can't withstand that kind of damage.
Costa's first 12 MMA wins all came by stoppage inside of the first two rounds — including his first four wins in the UFC. Look for Borrachinha to pick up another knockout win on Saturday.
Pick: Costa by KO/TKO/DQ (-150 at DraftKings)
