UFC 278 features the long-awaited rematch between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards, but it is one of the more evenly-matched cards in recent memory.
The preliminaries feature fights that are close on paper and should deliver some sparks before the main card. We take a look at a few featured bouts on the preliminaries to serve as your best picks and potential parlays ahead of the fistic festivities.
Here are our free picks and predictions for the UFC 278 prelims on August 20.
UFC 278 prelim picks and predictions
Daniel Lacerda vs. Victor Altamirano
• Prediction: Altamirano ML (-155)
• Best Bet: Altamirano ML (-155)
Amir Albazi vs. Francisco Figueiredo
• Prediction: Albazi ML (-475)
• Best Bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+115)
Marcin Tybura vs. Alexander Romanov
• Prediction: Romanov ML (-360)
• Best Bet: Romanov by decision (+240)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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Daniel Lacerda vs. Victor Altamirano features two fighters coming off a loss and buried on the early prelims, but a competitive showing will do well to boost their future prospects.
With Lacerda and Altamirano both coming off losses, they find themselves in must-win situations. Lacerda is a strong finisher, with 10 of his 11 wins coming by first-round finish, whereas Altamirano is a capable submission specialist.
Altamirano is a busy striker who lands 5.97 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy and lands 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. Lacerda lands 3.40 significant strikes per minute, but with a 77% accuracy.
This fight will be at its most interesting early on, especially as Lacerda pours everything out at the opening bell and could catch an easy-to-hit Altamirano with a huge shot.
Once that early window closes, the fight is likely to permanently swing to Altamirano’s favor as he’ll have a winded and vulnerable opponent in front of him.
If Lacerda’s recent losses have shown us anything, he tires out quick and lacks the type of defensive awareness to buy himself time to recover. We like Altamirano to win straight up at -155.
Prediction: Victor Altamirano moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Victor Altamirano moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)
An excellent flyweight showdown is on the prelims, with Amir Albazi vs. Francisco Figueiredo.
Albazi has a lot going for him and is right outside the Top 10 at flyweight. He’s got a decent test in Figueiredo, though odds have him a solid favorite to pick up the win. It’s unusual to see a fighter as gifted as Albazi so deep on the card, but he will need to perform well, nonetheless.
The Prince has finished all but two of his opponents, with five stoppages and seven submissions, with his average fight length lasting just under 10 minutes.
Three of his last five wins have come via first-round submission. Figueiredo is likely to try and get this fight on the ground, but should he get there, the refined groundwork from Albazi will turn those best-laid plans into a nightmare.
Albazi is the better fighter in every aspect, and the divide in talent will be apparent from the start. Albazi has the tools and the skill to end the fight, so we’re going to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can find a way to win before the halfway point of the second round.
Should he do so, it’s a +115 score.
Prediction: Albazi moneyline (-475 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+115 at DraftKings)
The prelims got a hard-hitting add this week, with the heavyweight bout of Marcin Tybura vs. Alexander Romanov joining the mix.
The Polish Power phenomenon somehow passed Tybura up, and it’s a shame because he’ll be needing it. While he hasn’t been taken down in a very long time, Tybura is getting easier to hit and has four stoppage losses in his career.
It’s hard to say where Tybura is physically, but from a competitive standpoint, he’s climbed as high as he’s going to go.
Romanov is a strong wrestler in the mold of Curtis Blaydes, and he’ll have to bully his seasoned opponent around the cage while trying to find a way to take him down.
There’s no doubt that Tybura will have his chances to test his chin, but if he can’t keep Romanov at bay, he’s going to get rag dolled and have the fight sapped out of him from multiple trips to the canvas
Romanov has shown strong finishing skills against meandering opposition, and it would be a statement if he’s able to finish Tybura. Unless he suddenly has the blunt force power like those who have stopped Tybura before, or he can do the unthinkable and be the first person to submit him, the value here is betting on the fight going the distance.
The safe bet is picking the fight to go over 1.5 rounds at -160, but because I feel Romanov will ace this test, the best bet is picking him to win by decision at +240.
Prediction: Alexander Romanov moneyline (-360 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Alexander Romanov by decision (+240 at DraftKings)
