UFC 285 Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane Picks and Predictions: Gane Makes Most of Title Shot

Jon Jones will take on Cyril Gane for the vacant heavyweight championship at UFC 285 on Saturday.

This is one of the most highly anticipated fights in years with Jon Jones looking to cement his status as the MMA GOAT by moving up in weight class to claim the title. UFC betting odds for this bout opened with Gane as the slight favorite, but money has poured in on Jones who is now the fave at -170.

Here are my best free UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane picks and predictions for March 4 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane fight odds

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on February 28, 2023.

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane picks

• Prediction: Gane ML (+140)
• Best bet: Gane ML (+140)

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane betting preview

The last time we saw Jon "Bones" Jones compete in the octagon was all the way back in February of 2020 when he defeated Dominick Reyes. He outworked Reyes in the championship rounds to win by unanimous decision and extend his unbeaten streak to a UFC-record 18 fights.

Since then, he vacated his 205-pound belt to move up in weight, and although rumored fights against Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou never materialized, he has finally reached a contract agreement and will get his shot at heavyweight gold.

Widely considered the greatest MMA fighter of all time, Jones was a two-time light heavyweight champion and holds the promotional record with 11 successful title defenses. The 35-year-old is a complete fighter that excels both in the grappling and striking departments. 

With his collegiate wrestling background, Jones is able to take opponents to the mat where he can hunt for submissions or unleash brutal ground strikes. On his feet, he uses his 84-inch reach, technical kickboxing ability, and cardio to pick apart his opponents from a variety of different angles.

Ciryl Gane is coming off a third-round knockout of Tai Tuivasa, which earned him a Fight of the Night bonus last September.

That allowed him to bounce back from his first career MMA defeat when he lost by points to Francis Ngannou in his first shot at the heavyweight title last year. Gane outstruck the incredibly powerful Ngannou for five rounds but was taken down four times and controlled on the mat for more than eight minutes. 

The 32-year-old is a physical specimen with incredible footwork and speed for his size. Not just a fantastic athlete, Gane is an elite technical striker who excelled in kickboxing and Muay Thai before entering MMA. He lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.25.

Gane was a massive -550 favorite against Tuivasa and this will be the first MMA fight where he will close as the underdog.

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane tale of the tape

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Gane

It seems simple to say that if Ngannou outwrestled Gane, then a much better grappler in Jones should be able to do the same. However, Jones' takedown accuracy has significantly dropped over the years and Gane will surely have worked on improving his takedown defense since that loss.

Fun fact:
Jon Jones' takedown accuracy SINCE 2016 = 29%
Jon Jones' takedown accuracy BEFORE 2016 = 52% #ufc

— Weasle (@ThaWeasle) February 25, 2023

Keep in mind, that few expected Ngannou to use his wrestling in that bout, so he benefited from the element of surprise. Gane quickly went from a kickboxer to an MMA fighter that won three of his first five fights by way of submission, so we know that he is capable of working on those skills.

Jones hasn't fought in 37 months and his last two fights were extremely close bouts against Reyes and Thiago Santos. 

It's just as easy to say that if Jones had a tough time outstriking Reyes and Santos, he'll have an even tougher time with Gane. After all, Gane is more polished and diverse as a striker than either of them and his physical traits are much closer to Jones. 

In the past, Jones has always used his massive reach advantage to put a hand out and keep his much smaller opponents at range. While he still has a 3-inch reach advantage on Gane, that's significantly less than the benefit he had against light heavyweights, and Gane's kicks will be able to work on the outside. 

If Gane is able to keep this fight standing up, he should be able to outstrike Jones and while Bones' durability has held up against other strikers it has never been tested by someone with Gane's size. 

Prediction: Gane moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Gane ML 

It's interesting that Gane opened as the slim favorite by oddsmakers before steam pushed Jones all the way to -170. Now the betting value is clearly on Gane, who has been more active and is more of a certainty at heavyweight than Jones, who comes in with plenty of question marks.

Will he show signs of ring rust after more than 3 years away? How will his speed and cardio be affected by the weight gain? And how will he handle facing an opponent who doesn't have as much of a size disadvantage as his previous foes?

Although we've seen another UFC legend in Georges-St Pierre return from a long layoff to move up in weight class and win a belt, it won't be easy for Jones to repeat history. This fight should be closer to a pick'em and with the public skewing this line towards Jones, I'll take the plus money with Gane.

Pick: Gane moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)

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