Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner is on the main card for UFC 285 betting on Saturday, March 4. This matchup has Fight of the Night candidate written all over it with a pair of entertaining Top-10 lightweights looking to take the next step.
Despite Gamrot accepting this fight on short notice, UFC odds have him installed as a -215 favorite with Turner coming back at close to +175.
Here are my best free picks and predictions for Gamrot vs. Turner at UFC 285 in Las Vegas.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner fight odds
Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Mateusz Gamrot | Jalin Turner |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +380 | +440 |
| To win by Points | +270 | +600 |
| To win by Submission | +280 | +900 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 2, 2023.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner betting preview
Mateusz "Gamer" Gamrot is the No. 7 ranked lightweight contender and is coming off a decision loss to No. 4 lightweight Beneil Dariush last October.
Eager to bounce back from that loss, the 32-year-old Gamrot accepted this fight on just three weeks notice after Dan Hooker dropped out. Prior to that competitive loss to Dariush, Gamrot had reeled off four-straight wins in the octagon, headlined by a decision victory against Arman Tsarukyan last summer that earned Fight of the Night honors.
Gamrot was the KSW double champion at featherweight and lightweight and had gone a perfect 17-0 in his MMA career prior to entering the UFC.
As a two-time ADCC European Champion in submission wrestling, Gamrot is an elite grappler who loves to work in level changes and averages 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also has very crisp technical boxing ability with good footwork out of his southpaw stance.
Jalin "The Tarantula" Turner is three spots behind Gamrot in the lightweight rankings and enters UFC 285 on a five-fight winning streak.
Although most of those wins came against middling UFC fighters, his last victory came in impressive fashion against talented kickboxer Brad Riddell. Turner rocked Riddell standing up and then jumped on him with a guillotine to end the fight inside the first minute.
Turner is massive for this division at 6-foot-3 while possessing a 77-inch reach. The 27-year-old is a dangerous striker who throws with volume, accuracy, speed, and power. But he has also improved in the grappling department and three of his last four wins have come by way of submission.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner tale of the tape
| Mateusz Gamrot | Jalin Turner | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 27 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 21-2 (7 KO) | Record | 13-5 (9 KO) |
Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Turner
Turner struggled against Matt Frevola's offensive wrestling in his previous loss, but that defeat was almost four years ago and he has stuffed 11 of 13 takedown attempts since.
Gamrot is an excellent wrestler but Turner has the size to defend takedowns as well as the ability to work from range to limit entries.
When this fight stays standing up, Turner will have a six-inch reach advantage along with more power and volume.
While Gamrot should be the favorite given his elite grappling and the caliber of his last two opponents, having him installed at -215 against a dangerous opponent on short notice seems too steep. Consider Turner as a live dog.
Prediction: Turner moneyline (+185 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Turner inside the distance
Gamrot has never been finished in his UFC career but he's been dropped by Dariush, Tsarukyan, and Guram Kutateladze across six UFC fights.
Gamrot tends to be linear in his striking which can make him a bit hittable at times. Especially against left hands that come over the top and Turner has one of the most powerful lefts in the division.
Turner also has an underrated submission game, and if Gamrot becomes too reckless with his wrestling, he could leave his neck open for a guillotine.
With all 13 of Turner's career wins coming by way of stoppage and none of those fights even going past the second round, back him to win inside the distance at plus money.
Pick: Turner by KO/TKO, DQ, or submission (+333 at bet365)
