UFC 294 Prelim Picks and Predictions: Wood Outworks Naimov Throughout the Fight

UFC 294 takes place this Saturday at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, headlined by the heavily anticipated rematch between lightweight champion Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski. While the main card is riddled with crossroad clashes, UFC odds show preliminary card features solid contenders in tough bouts.

Nathaniel Wood faces a stern challenge in Muhammadjon Naimov, Muhammad Mokaev returns from injury against veteran Tim Elliott, and Sharabutdin Magomedov makes his hyped UFC debut vs. Bruno Silva.

Here are my free picks from the UFC 294 preliminaries from Abu Dhabi.

UFC 294 prelim picks and predictions

Wood vs. Naimov
• Prediction: Wood ML (-340)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-166)

Elliott vs. Mokaev
• Prediction: Mokaev ML (-425)
• Best Bet: Fight to go the distance (-165)

Magomedov vs. Silva
• Prediction: Magomedov ML (-290)
• Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-115)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammadjon Naimov

This is a quick turnaround for Nathaniel Wood after beating Andre Fili just two and a half months ago.  He’s giving up three inches in height to Muhammadjon Naimov, who is coming down in weight after his shock win over Jaime Mullarkey in June. Naimov was getting the plaster punched out of him until he managed to deck Mullarkey with a huge shot, and it’s likely he’ll need a similar outcome against Wood.

Wood doesn’t have stopping power, but he’s busy and accurate and can take things to the ground if he has to. I see this as a cat-and-mouse fight, so I'll pick Wood to win and Over 2.5 rounds as my best bet

Prediction: Wood moneyline (-340 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-166 at DraftKings)

Muhammad Mokaev vs Tim Elliott

Muhammad Mokaev is a huge favorite over veteran Tim Elliott, but this fight isn’t going to be as easy as the odds indicate. Elliott is putting together decent wins at 36 years old, still being about his wits though older and slower. If Mokaev struggles to get Elliott on the ground — and he might — it’ll be up to his unproven striking to win the fight. 

Mokaev was in rough against Jafel Filho and is coming off a partial MCL tear from refusing to tap to a kneebar in that fight. For someone named “The Punisher,” the striking isn’t there, and he could have trouble against Elliott’s pressure if he isn’t 100% and can’t get him on the ground. I don’t know if Elliott has enough left in the tank to pull this off, so I’m cautiously picking Mokaev... with my best bet being the fight going the distance.

Prediction: Mokaev moneyline (-425 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Fight to go the distance (-165 at DraftKings)

Shara Magomedov vs Bruno Silva

“The Bullet” is making his hyped UFC debut against middleweight trial horse Bruno Silva in what should be a good litmus test of his potential. Magomedov’s heavy hands and Silva’s leaky defense suggest this could be a walkover. Though Silva is a journeyman, he’s heavy handed and a significant step up in class to what Magomedov has faced in Russia.

Silva might make it easy for him as he’s likely to go right to Magomedov and test his mettle. From what we’ve seen from Magomedov, he's a big hitter with a mean streak, and Silva won't be able to keep him away.

I'm betting the fight goes Under 1.5 rounds for "The Bullet".

Prediction: Magomedov moneyline (-290 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-115 at DraftKings)

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