UFC 294 Usman vs Chimaev Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Borz Won't Back Down Against Kamaru

Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev is the co-main event for UFC 294 betting. Chimaev was originally supposed to match up against Paulo Costa but Costa withdrew last week and Usman stepped in on short notice.

MMA fans have to be thrilled about that replacement with Usman, the former welterweight champ, moving up in weight to face Chimaev at 185 pounds. UFC odds opened with Usman as a +260 underdog but have shortened to +225, with Chimaev coming back at -278.

Here are my best free Usman vs. Chimaev picks and predictions for Saturday, October 21. 

Usman vs Chimaev fight odds

Usman vs Chimaev method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 21, 2023.

Usman vs Chimaev picks

Fight prediction: Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev has more paths to victory than Kamaru Usman, and he's smack dab in his prime at the moment while Usman appears to be trending downward. When fighters start to decline — even former greats — the fall is often steep.

While there's no shame in Usman losing to a well-rounded fighter like Leon Edwards, it's worth pointing out his performance was significantly worse in their title rematch in the spring. Usman clearly got the better of Edwards for most of their fight last December before being caught by a flash knockout, but Edwards picked him apart in a majority decision in March. 

Usman looked to be half a step slower in that bout which can happen when you're 36 years old. There are also questions about how effective his once dominant wrestling can be with his knees now shot and his chin might be gone after being put to sleep by that head kick from Edwards.

The fact Usman took this fight on just 10 days' notice and that it's scheduled for three rounds also works against him. Usman weaponizes his incredible conditioning to wear down opponents in the championship rounds and cardio is one area where he has a clear advantage over Chimaev. However, that edge will be blunted by the lack of a full camp and this fight going no more than 15 minutes. 

Prediction: Chimaev moneyline (-275 at bet365)

Fight best bet: Over 2.5 rounds

While I have a tough time seeing Usman win this fight, I do think he'll be a challenge for Chimaev who is used to rag-dolling smaller opponents who aren't on his level. Keep in mind that the only Top 10 ranked fighter that Chimaev has ever faced was Gilbert Burns and he was pushed to the limit in that tough three-round decision win last year. 

Despite his elite grappling credentials, Chimaev had a tough time holding Burns down in that bout, and now he faces an even bigger and stronger fighter in Usman who has a career takedown defense of 97%. Chimaev is also extremely tough to take down and while that should result in a stand-up battle, it could also mean plenty of clinch work against the cage... neutralizing the offense of both fighters. 

Chimaev does have power in his hands and there has to be some concern about Usman's chin after getting starched by Edwards last year. That said, Usman had previously never been knocked out (or even officially knocked down) and his durability might be better at 185 pounds since he's cutting far less weight.

In addition, that KO loss to Edwards seemed to make him more tentative in their third clash. While that lack of aggression could cost him on the scorecards it should also make him more sound when it comes to his striking defense. Don't expect this fight to be over early and bet the Over 2.5 rounds at plus money. 

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (+120 at bet365)

Usman vs Chimaev betting preview

Kamaru Usman has now lost back-to-back fights after beginning his UFC career with 15 consecutive victories. The former welterweight champion had defended his belt five times and looked to be on his way to another successful defense last August before getting caught by a head kick from Edwards.

When he rematched against Edwards in March, Usman looked like a diminished version of his former self and lost by majority decision — getting outstruck 120-87. 

In his prime, Usman was a dominant fighter who used his strength, athleticism, wrestling, and limitless gas tank to overpower opponents. After receiving some criticism for his stand up earlier on in his career, he improved his striking under renowned coach Trevor Wittman and racked up KO/TKO wins against Colby Covington, Gilbert Burns, and Jorge Masvidal within a 17-month span.

The big question for Usman is how close he is to that peak version of himself, and taking this fight on short notice against a dangerous fighter like Borz will prove extremely challenging.

Khamzat Chimaev hasn't fought in more than a year since submitting Kevin Holland in the first round last September. Chimaev made his UFC debut in 2020 and racked up an incredible three finishes in his first 65 days in the promotion. However, "Borz" hasn't been as active lately and has fought just three times since.

Chimaev has dominated most of his foes but the only time he faced another contender in Burns he had a very tough decision victory. In fact, while he has absorbed just one significant strike in his other five UFC fights, he absorbed 119 significant strikes against Burns. The 29-year-old has incredible strength and is an elite wrestler with heavy hands and the ability to win with submissions or ground-and-pound.

Usman vs Chimaev tale of the tape

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