UFC 295 Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Striking Resemblance

Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira square off for the vacant light heavyweight title in the main event for UFC 295 betting this evening. This should be a banger between a pair of striking specialists that rack up highlight-reel knockouts. Prochazka will try to regain the belt that he vacated last year while Pereira will aim for light heavyweight gold after losing the 185-pound championship seven months ago.

UFC odds have Pereira as a slim -130 favorite with Prochazka at +110. Here are my best free UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira picks and predictions for November 11 from Madison Square Garden in New York.

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira fight odds

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 11, 2023.

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira picks

Fight prediction: Pereira ML

This is such a tough fight to handicap since both fighters are elite strikers with massive frames and the power to end it all with a single shot. Pereira's biggest flaw is his lack of MMA experience and grappling ability. However, he has the strength to fight off submission attempts and Prochazka has generally preferred to stand and trade on the feet.

Prochazka's willingness to brawl could be his biggest detriment in this fight. The Czech fighter has always been willing to take a shot in order to give one but he has never faced anybody quite on Pereira's level when it comes to striking ability. Poatan is not someone you want to be tanking shots from, and he's a bit more sound defensively than the reckless Prochazka.

Another factor that makes me wary of backing Prochazka is the shoulder surgery that he's coming off. Although wear and tear is common in combat sports, Dana White described Prochazka's shoulder injury as one of the worst the organization's doctors have ever seen.

Prediction: Pereira moneyline (-125 at SportsInteraction)

Fight best bet: Over 2.5 rounds

It's easy to see why many think this fight will get over quickly since both Prochazka and Pereira are known for brutal knockout victories. That said, many of these types of matchups often go on longer than expected since these fighters will be wary of the other's power. 

Pereira was put to sleep by Adesanya earlier this year but he should be more durable now that he's not cutting down to 185 pounds. That said, his strength and power will also be less of a game-changer at light heavyweight. As good of a striker Pereira is, he's also highly technical and patient, and doesn't typically push the pace.

Although Prochazka has a history of fighting aggressively at a chaotic pace, we might see him use a slightly different game plan here. He believes he has a grappling advantage in this matchup saying that Pereira's "not a good martial artist like on the ground, on the wrestling." While Prochazka has seldom used his own offensive wrestling in the past — he might utilize it against Pereira, which would drain the clock. 

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (+135 at bet365)

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira betting preview

Jiri Prochazka returns to the octagon for the first time since June 2022 when he submitted Glover Teixeira in the fifth round to win the light heavyweight title. That was an incredible back-and-forth clash that earned Fight of the Year honors from multiple publications, but Prochazka soon vacated the title due to a brutal shoulder injury suffered in training.

That victory against Teixeira was the 13th consecutive win for Prochazka, who has just three fights in the UFC but has plenty of experience against top fighters in other promotions around the world.

The 30-year-old is a very creative striker who has a high output and vicious power. He has has an incredible 97% finish rate with 25 knockouts in his career — including notable wins against Dominick Reyes, Volkan Oezdemir, and current Bellator champ Vadim Nemkov.

Alex Pereira is coming off his light heavyweight debut in July when he edged former champ Jan Blachowicz by split decision. Pereira was out-grappled and controlled on the mat for almost the entire first round but was able to outstrike Blachowicz 68-46 in the final two frames to earn a close victory. Although that was Pereira's first MMA fight in this weight class, he had fought at 205 and 185 pounds as a professional kickboxer and was the former Glory champ in both divisions. 

The Brazilian began his UFC career at middleweight in 2021 and quickly climbed the rankings after impressive victories against Andreas Michailidis, Bruno Silva, and current champ Sean Strickland. That earned him a middleweight title shot against kickboxing rival Israel Adesanya last November and he knocked him out in the fifth round to claim the belt. However, Pereira lost the belt in a rematch against Adesanya five months later and then moved up to light heavyweight.

Pereira is a highly technical striker who throws kicks and punches to every level. He's most known for his death-touch power after starching Adesanya twice and putting Strickland to sleep as well.

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira tale of the tape

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