UFC 295 Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Frevola Frustrated by Balanced Opponent

Lightweights Matt Frevola and Benoit Saint Denis are bringing fireworks to the Garden in a featured attraction on the UFC 295 undercard this Saturday, November 11, from Madison Square Garden in New York.

The surging Saint Denis faces off against the upset-minded Frevola in a bout that features two lightweights who come forward with reckless abandon.

UFC odds have Saint Denis the favorite at -225, while Frevola is a +185 underdog. 

Here are my free picks for Frevola vs. Saint Denis at UFC 295 from New York.

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis fight odds

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 9, 2023.

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis picks

Fight prediction: Saint Denis

Saint Denis is emerging as a future contender at lightweight, and his mixture of volume striking with his relentless ground game is ensuring he’ll be in the mix for a major fight in the short term. We saw a complete performance in his previous fight, a second-round stoppage of Thiago Moises, where Saint Denis dismantled his opponent in every facet of the fight. This figures to be a bigger test of his mettle, as Frevola has a reputation of upsetting highly-touted prospects.  

Frevola finds himself in familiar territory as a decided underdog versus an emerging star. That didn’t stop him when he unloaded on the likes of Jalin Turner, and the undefeated Genaro Valdez and Ottman Azaitar. He recently stopped Drew Dober six months ago for the biggest win of his career.  

If anyone should give Saint Denis pause in his striking, it’s Frevola. However, Saint Denis has his grappling to fall back on, and that’s something Frevola cannot handle. Frevola’s last dance with a strong grappler was when Armen Tsarukyan took him down 10 times, and shut him down. Should this remain a striking contest, Saint Denis’ faster hands could find the target before Frevola’s, who has been chin checked on more than one occasion. 

This could turn out to be a fun fight with some solid striking exchanges, but the more resourceful Saint Denis should prevail. 

Prediction: Saint Denis moneyline (-225 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Saint Denis by KO/TKO/DQ

It’s going to take more than drawing Saint Denis into a brawl to have him in trouble. Saint Denis has crisp boxing, a good chin, and solid BJJ. He’s also savvy enough to avoid Frevola’s wild shots. On the flip side, Frevola’s durability and leaky ground defense serves as a liability. 

I think Saint Denis is the better quality striker and that should open up some opportunities to get Frevola on the ground. Frevola may be determined, but his resiliency and ability to take damage isn’t where it should be to beat someone like Saint Denis. Power is the ultimate equalizer, and Frevola just needs one clean shot to close the book on another rising prospect.

I figure this fight has two capable finishers who will be going at it from the start. I’ll lean towards Saint Denis getting a TKO over Frevola.

Pick: Saint Denis by KO/TKO/DQ (+165 at DraftKings)

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis betting preview

After a disastrous short-notice debut at welterweight, Saint Denis’ drop to lightweight has resulted in four impressive victories. Going into this fight with Frevola, Saint Denis looks to make it five in a row and cannot be ignored by the rest of the lightweight elite. 

Frevola has flirted with the top tier of the division for some time, coming up short when he is one victory away. Some nights, he’s a prospect killer with lights-out power, then there are other nights where he can get rag-dolled or punched out. Though Frevola is good enough to be more than a measuring stick, his consistency is holding him back.

This should be a fun fight where the winner should rightfully ascend to contender status. Saint Denis’ strength on the ground gives him an advantage and a chance to exploit Frevola’s lacking ground game. Shot for shot, Frevola is likely the hardest hitter Saint Denis has fought since his welterweight loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis tale of the tape

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