UFC 296 Edwards vs Covington Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Chaos Theory Rejected Tonight

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington is the highly-anticipated main event for UFC 296 betting tonight.

Both fighters have been at the top of the welterweight division for years with Edwards calling out Covington back in 2020. While Covington had previously rejected a matchup with Edwards he quickly jumped on the opportunity with Edwards now holding the championship. 

UFC odds opened with Edwards as a slim +105 underdog but money has poured in on the champ and he now sits at -160 with "Chaos" coming back at +135. Here are my best free Edwards vs. Covington picks and predictions for UFC 296 on December 16. 

Edwards vs Covington fight odds

Method of Victory	Leon Edwards	Colby Covington
To win outright	-160	+135
To win by KO/TKO	+365	+730
To win by points	+150	+235
To win by submission	+1,100	+1,350
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on December 16, 2023.

Bet on the UFC at Bet99!

Sign Up Offer
One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join Bet99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using Bet99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

Edwards vs Covington picks

Fight prediction: Leon Edwards ML

Covington certainly has a path to victory if he's able to use his pressure, cardio, and chain wrestling to keep Edwards on the back foot and suffocate his offense. However, we've seen Edwards go up against someone with a similar style and more power in Kamaru Usman and come out on top.

While Edwards needed a Hail Mary head kick to starch Usman in their first title fight, he had an even more convincing victory in the rematch, beating Usman by unanimous decision in March.

While Usman had four takedowns in that bout, Edwards stuffed 11 of his 15 attempts and did a good job of getting back to his feet. In the stand-up, Edwards pieced up Usman, outstriking him 120-87 while boasting a 74% strike accuracy.

While Covington's relentless takedowns will likely take Edwards to the mat at some point, Edwards has shown get-up ability so he won't be controlled for long. On the feet, there is a wide gulf between these two with Edwards boasting a more diverse striking arsenal, crisper and more accurate kickboxing, and harder hits. 

It also doesn't help that Covington hasn't fought in 21 months and doesn't have a win on his resume against a current ranked fighter on the UFC roster. Expect Edwards to control range, counter Covington when he tries to close the gap, and pick him apart with his superior striking. 

Prediction: Leon Edwards moneyline (-160 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Fight to go the distance

Regardless of who wins this fight, I don't see a finish happening. Although Edwards picked up a highlight-reel knockout against Usman, 10 of his last 13 fights have gone the distance.

While Covington has previously mocked Usman as Kamaru "Snoozman," he's received plenty of criticism in the past for boring fights as well. Sure, he engaged in a couple of highly-entertaining brawls with Usman but that's because their elite wrestling neutralized each other. 

Covington typically relies on his chain-wrestling and control and he'll likely revert to that style to stifle Edwards' offense and drain his energy.

Seven of Covington's last nine fights have gone the distance and the two that didn't ended by TKO in the fifth round. The best bet is to back this fight to go the distance. 

Pick: Fight to go the Distance — Yes (-180 at Bet99)

Edwards vs Covington betting preview

Leon Edwards enters UFC 296 on an 11-fight winning streak and is the reigning champ after back-to-back victories against Kamaru Usman.

While it looked like he was headed to a decision loss against Usman in his first title shot in 2020, he ended up starching the previous champion with a highlight-reel head kick in the fifth round. He had an even more convincing victory in their trilogy fight, beating Usman by unanimous decision in March for his first title defense. 

The 32-year-old is a well-rounded fighter who combines highly technical kickboxing with solid wrestling technique and excellent work in the clinch.

Colby Covington hasn't been in the octagon since defeating Jorge Masvidal in a lopsided decision in March of 2022. He's 9-2 in his last 11 bouts with his only defeats during that span coming in competitive title fights against Usman.  

Covington gets plenty of publicity for his brash persona that borders on the verge of a WWE heel, but his fighting skills can't be overlooked. 

A former NCAA All-American wrestler at Oregon State, Chaos averages 4.05 takedowns per 15 minutes and does a great job of controlling his opponents on the mat and against the cage. He's also a high-volume striker who loves to push the pace and has a seemingly limitless gas tank to back it up.

Edwards vs Covington tale of the tape

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic