UFC 299 Yan vs Yadong Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Ride Yadong's Momentum Heading Into South Beach Bout

Kicking off tonight's UFC 299 card in Miami is a bantamweight bout between Petr Yan and Song Yadong.

UFC odds have Yan as a slight betting favorite at -130, while Yadong returns at +105. Here are my free betting picks for Yan vs. Yadong on Saturday, March 9.

Petr Yan vs Song Yadong fight odds

Method of Victory	Yan	Yadong
To win outright	-130	+105
To win by KO/TKO	+575	+450
To win by points	+145	+225
To win by submission	+1,250	+1,600
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 9, 2024.

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Yan vs Yadong picks

Fight prediction: Yadong ML

Song Yadong has a ton of momentum going for him right now. The 26-year-old South Korean has won five of his past six fights, with his only loss coming against the esteemed Cory Sandhagen.

Yadong is also bigger and younger, which will bode well for the duration aspect of the bout, especially in one likely to be determined by the judges. Yan's three-fight skid will also be tough to overcome mentally, and he is certainly not getting any younger. 

With the oddsmakers expecting this fight to go the distance, I think Yadong has more ways to rack up points.

Prediction: Yadong moneyline (+100 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Yadong by decision

Yan has never been finished inside the distance across four professional losses (excluding his DQ). Meanwhile, 43% of Yadong’s professional wins have come by decision, which is equal to or greater than his number of wins by either knockout or submission (43% and 14%, respectively).

Yan also possesses a strong chin, while Yadong’s submission game certainly isn’t anything special enough to sway his handicap.

Pick: Yadong by decision (+210 at Bet99)

Yan vs Yadong betting preview

These two fighters are trending in completely different directions, with Yan dropping three straight fights while Yadong has won two straight and five of his past six. Despite these opposing trends, Yan remains a slight favorite, which is a credit to the body of work he has put in and the level of competition he has faced.

Yan’s three aforementioned losses are to Aljamain Sterling, Sean O’Malley, and Merab Dvalishvili. On top of that, two of those three losses came by split decision, and both were relatively controversial.

With that said, it is how he lost to Merab by a unanimous decision in the most recent fight that has me concerned for Yan in this matchup.

Merab absolutely dominated Yan in the wrestling department, coasting to an effortless 50-45 unanimous decision victory while amassing 11 takedowns. Yan didn’t have an answer for Dvalishvili’s relentless work on the mat, and I expect Yadong to follow this bout with a similar approach.

We saw Yadong mix in his wrestling and grappling in his latest unanimous decision win over Chris Gutierrez, an admittedly boring fight in which Yadong also coasted to an effortless victory due to his 11:01 of control time.

It’s hard for a fighter like Yan to get back on track after three demoralizing decision losses, especially against a guy who will likely implement a good mixed attack of striking and wrestling to influence the judges.

Petr Yan vs Song Yadong tale of the tape

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