301 Prelim Picks and Predictions: Back Klose in Lopsided Matchup

UFC 301 takes place tonight from Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, with the main event being a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg.

In the latest UFC odds, the preliminaries feature several intriguing bouts at lightweight, middleweight, and women’s strawweight.

Here are my best free UFC 301 preliminary picks and predictions from Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

UFC 301 prelim picks and predictions

Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho
• Prediction: Borralho ML (-575 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (+110 at Bet99)

Joaquim Silva vs. Drakkar Klose
• Prediction: Klose ML (-180 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Klose ML (-180 at Bet99)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Iasmin Lucindo
• Prediction: Lucindo ML (-380 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-210 at Bet99)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

Bet on the UFC at BET99!

One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

UFC 301 prelim odds and picks

Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho fight odds

Method of Victory	Craig	Borralho
To win outright	+440	-550
To win by KO/TKO	+1,000	+215
To win by points	+1,100	+210
To win by submission	+1,200	+200
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on May 4, 2024.

When Paul Craig slimmed down from light heavyweight to middleweight, he put on a tremendous performance against Andre Muniz. However, Craig followed that up by getting walked like a dog by Brendan Allen, and he isn’t going to have much luck against Borralho.

Craig is the master of shock submissions, but Borralho’s extensive BJJ background will prevent that from happening. Borralho is the better fighter in every aspect, and if Craig tries to lure him to the ground, he might regret what’ll happen if he goes there.

I’m picking Borralho to win, with my best bet being that the fight goes Over 2.5 rounds.

Prediction: Borralho moneyline (-575 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (+110 at BET99)

Joaquim Silva vs. Drakkar Klose fight odds

Method of Victory	Silva	Klose
To win outright	+160	-190
To win by KO/TKO	+425	+175
To win by points	+475	+200
To win by submission	+1,250	+2,000
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on May 4, 2024.

Drakkar Klose is 4-1 in his last five, with the lone loss coming to Beneil Dariush.

While Joaquim Silva is fighting in front of a friendly crowd, that won’t cure his chin issues and underwhelming striking defense. Silva absorbs 4.51 significant strikes per minute, which means that Klose will have a field day thanks to his 55% striking accuracy.

Every time Silva has strayed beyond his current level, he’s been humbled in a big way. Taking Klose at less than -200 odds is a bargain, so the best bet is by way of the moneyline.

Prediction: Klose moneyline (-180 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (+110 at BET99)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Iasmin Lucindo fight odds

Method of Victory	Kowalkiewicz	Lucindo
To win outright	+300	-380
To win by KO/TKO	+1,900	+335
To win by points	+440	+120
To win by submission	+2,000	+335
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on May 4, 2024.

Iasmin Lucindo is a sharp striker who has scored eight knockouts in the regional circuit, and she is coming off a submission win over Polyana Viana in her last fight.

Kowalkiewicz has terrible striking defense and has never done well against fighters of Lucindo’s mold. The only interesting prospect here is if Lucindo could be the first to stop the incredibly durable Kowalkiewicz, whose only knockout loss came to Jessica Andrade in 2018.

Otherwise, this is going to be a highlight reel performance for Lucindo.

Prediction: Lucindo moneyline (-380 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (+110 at BET99)

Pages related to this topic