UFC 305: Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya Odds, Picks & Predictions

Dricus du Plessis puts his middleweight title on the line against former two-time champ Israel Adesanya at UFC 305 this Saturday.

This is a highly-anticipated grudge match between a pair of fighters that have traded barbs over the last year and the UFC odds have tabbed Adesanya as a slim -120 favorite.

Here are my UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya predictions and picks for August 17 from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.

Du Plessis vs Adesanya prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Adesanya moneyline (-115 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Adesanya moneyline (-115 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Both fighters are coming off bouts against Sean Strickland with Dricus du Plessis winning the title with a close split decision against Strickland in February and Adesanya losing the belt in a lopsided decision last September.

That said, MMA math doesn't always lead to the same results and Adesanya is a matchup nightmare for du Plessis. Strickland defeated Adesanya with pressure and volume and du Plessis is also a high-output striker but the South African applies a different kind of pressure.

Strickland is patient and defensively sound while pressuring and throws strikes with a rhythm that's hard to figure out. Du Plessis throws more predictable combinations and his pressure relies on blitzing opponents which leaves him open for counters. That poor striking defense will be exposed by Adesanya who might be the best counter-striker in MMA history.

Du Plessis tends to leave his chin in the air while throwing looping punches which won't work against Adesanya who does an excellent job of controlling distance and firing shots straight up the middle. As long as Adesanya avoids getting taken down and controlled on the mat, he should be able to utilize his more technical kickboxing to pick apart DDP. 

Best best analysis

When this matchup was being discussed last summer, Adesanya was installed as a -330 favorite. When the bout was officially announced in June with DDP as the champ, Izzy was much shorter at -140 and it's now almost a pick'em. It's easy to see why money is coming on Du Plessis, after all, he's five years younger and there's a growing narrative that Adesanya is washed up. 

That said, this talk about Adesanya being over the hill seems premature. Keep in mind that he's just 16 months removed from starching current light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira. While Adesanya obviously shouldn't be anywhere close to -330, moving all the way to -120 seems like a massive over-correction.

Don't get me wrong, Adesanya looked awful against Strickland, almost getting finished in the first round and failing to show the urgency or output needed to turn things around. However, it was a letdown spot after an emotional win against Pereira and it was also a lookahead spot with Adesanya eager for a clash with du Plessis but "settling" for a fight with Strickland. 

While Adesanya hasn't fought since last September, taking nearly a year off to reset might be good for him. Especially since he has admitted to physical and mental fatigue after nine title fights over a four-year period. If Adesanya is as focused as he seems, he should be able to put on a striking clinic against the hittable du Plessis and make this ML price look like a gift.  

Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya odds

Method of Victory	Du Plessis	Adesanya
To win outright	-105	-110
To win by KO/TKO	+335	+270
To win by decision	+390	+225
To win by submission	+640	+2,900
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 8-17.

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Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya tale of the tape

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