UFC 307: Roman Dolidze vs Kevin Holland Odds, Picks & Predictions

Kevin Holland and Roman Dolizde are two of the most entertaining middleweights, and they’re squaring off at UFC 307 in hopes of being something more than undercard filler. 

This figures to be a tough fight between two talented bangers that will be tightly contested until the end. See why my Holland vs. Dolidze predictions feel the former has to be at his most disciplined to win this Saturday, October 5 clash.

UFC odds have Holland the favorite at -150, while Dolidze is a +120 underdog. Here are my best free UFC 307 picks.

Dolidze vs Holland prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Holland moneyline (-155 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (-220 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Holland and Dolidze are two fighters that chronically underperform, and are both finding victory one weight class higher than normal after losing two straight.

Dolidze, is a tremendously strong and skilled grappler, who looks to have shunned his best skills in favor of being a wild striker. He’s coming off a win against Anthony Smith at light heavyweight where he proved this point by only scoring one takedown and opting to strike with Smith in a dreadful performance.

If there’s any fight for Dolizde to be dialed in with his wrestling, it’s this one, because Holland’s power, speed, and reach will make a conventional striking battle particularly difficult to win. 

Similar to Dolizde, Holland would have gone further in his career if he just focused on his excellent striking instead of trying to develop his grappling on the fly. As physically gifted and talented as he is, Holland has subpar fight IQ and is willing to give up the farm if he feels like he wants to switch gears and try to wrestle. 

The problem with Holland is that his striking does tend to open up opportunities to use his solid BJJ, such as we saw in his last win via submission against Michal Oleksiejczuk.

To Holland’s credit, he’s improved his takedown defense tremendously. As rugged as Dolidze is, we’ve seen him get worked over by average and excellent strikers alike, such as Nassourdine Imavov nearly stopping him in each round of their fight and Marvin Vettori putting on a striking clinic against him. 

Also, Holland tends to do better the further down the card he is. If this were a co-main or a main event on a Fight Night card, he’s shown that the nerves can get to him. As long as Holland keeps his focus and doesn’t test Dolidze on the mat, he will win, and I’m picking him with caution. 

Best best analysis

Holland tends to do his best work on the outside when he can use every inch of his 81” wingspan, and he’ll have a readily available target, as Dolidze likes to charge in and throw big shots.

Because Dolizde has an incredible chin and is a physically strong fighter, I can see him taking Holland’s shots and still drudging forward, potentially hoping to clinch and look for takedowns as the fight wears on. I don’t see a finish, but I do see this as a toss-up.

My best bet is the fight goes Over 2.5 rounds.

Roman Dolidze vs Kevin Holland odds

Method of Victory	Dolidze	Holland
To win outright	+120	-150
To win by KO/TKO	+750	+400
To win by decision	+215	+180
To win by submission	+1,300	+700
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-3.

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Roman Dolidze vs Kevin Holland tale of the tape

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