UFC 307: Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Odds, Picks & Predictions

Alex Pereira faces off against Khalil Rountree Jr. in the headline event for UFC 307 betting this Saturday in Salt Lake City. 

Many view this fight between the No. 8 ranked light heavyweight contender in Rountree and the No. 2 ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world in Pereira as a mismatch. Oddsmakers agree with UFC odds installing the champion as a -500 favorite and the challenger coming back at +350.

I let you know the best way to bet on the fave with my UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr predictions and picks for October 5.

Pereira vs Rountree Jr. prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Pereira ML (-500 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  0.5 units on Pereira in Rd 1 (+215 at BET99), 0.5 units on Pereira in Rd 2 (+335 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Rountree enters on a five-fight winning streak with four of those victories coming by way of knockout. That said, the one decision victory during that span was against a former Glory kickboxer, Dustin Jacoby who outstruck him 120-85 and was far more accurate in the striking exchanges. Rountree edged out the decision in that fight due to landing the more damaging shots but that isn't going to happen against Pereira, who has both elite technical kickboxing and devastating power. 

Pereira is one of the most accomplished combat sports athletes in history and has gone 8-1 in the UFC with his only loss in the promotion coming in a middleweight title fight against Israel Adesanya in 2023. Since then, Pereira has moved up to light heavyweight where he has won four in a row. 

It's a wonder that the massive Pereira ever managed to make weight at 185. His chin will hold up better at 205 where he knocked out Jiri Prochazka for the championship last November before defending the belt with knockouts against Jamahal Hill and a rematch versus Prochazka earlier this year. 

There are still questions about how Pereira's defensive wrestling will be able to hold up against high-level grapplers but Rountree won't be testing that since he has never attempted a takedown across 15 UFC fights. Pereira should have very few problems out-striking Rountree on Saturday. 

Best best analysis

Rountree has won five in a row but when you take into account his opponents during that span it becomes less impressive.

That streak began with a win against Modestas Bukauskas who was cut after losing to Rountree. He then beat Karl Roberson who is currently on a five-fight losing streak, Jacoby, who has dropped four of his last five, Chris Daukaus who has also lost five in a row, and Anthony Smith. Smith is easily the best of the bunch and he's washed-up having gone 2-4 in his last six and currently sitting outside the Top-10 of the division. 

Pereira is easily the toughest opponent Rountree has ever faced and the challenger has been knocked out twice earlier in his UFC career. His KO loss to Ion Cutelaba came by ground-and-pound but he was also viciously starched standing up against Johnny Walker.

Pereira is one of the hardest hitters in MMA and six of his eight wins in the promotion have come by way of knockout. Five of those finishes came inside the first two rounds (including his last three victories) and the only bouts that went the distance came against opponents who relied on grappling to try and smother his striking. Rountree is a dyed-in-the-wool striker and he won't be able to stand and trade with Pereira for more than 10 minutes.

Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr. odds

Method of Victory	Pereira	Rountree Jr.
To win outright	-500	+350
To win by KO/TKO	-275	+500
To win by decision	+750	+750
To win by submission	+1,100	+1,600
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-4.

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Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr. tale of the tape

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