Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Fight Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for UFC 309

Jon Jones makes his first heavyweight title defense against former two-time champ Stipe Miocic at UFC 309 tonight. 

This will be a clash between arguably the greatest heavyweight in UFC history and Jon Jones, widely considered the greatest fighter of all time with 13 title defenses at light heavyweight. UFC odds currently have Jones installed as a -650 favorite and I don't see this fight making it to the championship rounds.

Here are my best free UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic predictions for November 16 from Madison Square Garden in New York City.

Jones vs Miocic prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Jones ML (-650 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Under 2.5 rounds (-150 at BET99)

Fight analysis

While Stipe Miocic is the greatest heavyweight in UFC history, he hasn't fought since getting knocked out by Francis Ngannou in 2021 and hasn't recorded a win in more than four years.

To be fair, Jones also hasn't been active with just one fight in the last four years. However, that was a first-round submission win against Ciryl Gane that earned him the vacant heavyweight title in 2023. 

Miocic has excellent technical boxing and impressive cardio for a heavyweight. That said, Jon Jones' kicking ability and knees and elbows in the clinch give him a more diverse arsenal of weapons.

Jones also had an incredible gas tank at 205, and that should carry over to this weight class since he looks in great shape. While Miocic has good wrestling, Jones boasts far better grappling and dangerous submissions.

Jones has too many tools for Miocic to overcome, and when you factor Stipe's layoff and age into the mix, I don't see him pulling off the upset here. That said, I'd avoid betting the moneyline at -670 since there's always a chance of a flash KO in this division, and Jones' chin has also never been tested at heavyweight.

Best best analysis

Jones became a bit of a decision machine towards the end of his reign at light heavyweight, with seven of his last nine wins going the distance. That said, I don't see this bout going past the midway point of Round 3.

Miocic was starched in his loss to Ngannou and had already been knocked out twice while getting dropped another two times earlier in his career. He has plenty of wear and tear on his body, and his durability is a big question mark at 42 years old. 

Jones can chop Miocic down with brutal low kicks, finish him with ground-and-pound, or slice him with vicious elbows in the clinch.

His elite grappling ability could also result in him becoming the first fighter to ever submit Miocic. After all, Jones was able to ragdoll an Olympic-caliber wrestler in Daniel Cormier, so even a former Division 1 wrestler like Miocic could be overwhelmed. 

Betting the Under 2.5 rounds also covers us in case Miocic catches him with a big shot, or if either of these aging and rusty fighters gets injured early.

Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic odds

Method of Victory	Jones	Miocic
To win outright	-650	+510
To win by KO/TKO	+120	+850
To win by decision	+405	+1,550
To win by submission	+200	+3,300
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 11-16.

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Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic tale of the tape

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