UFC Fight Night Almeida vs Lewis Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Almeida Closes Out Fight in Round 1

The UFC returns to Brazil this Saturday with a clash between heavyweights Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis headlining the main event for UFC Fight Night.

Almeida was originally supposed to face Curtis Blaydes at this event but he withdrew on October 9 and was replaced by Lewis who holds the UFC record for knockouts. Despite his staggering power, Lewis is a massive underdog in this fight with UFC odds installing the fast-rising Almeida as a -500 favorite. 

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis picks and predictions for November 4, 2023.

Almeida vs Lewis fight odds

Almeida vs Lewis method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on Nov. 1, 2023.

Almeida vs Lewis picks

Fight prediction: Jailton Almeida ML

It's easy to see why Jailton Almeida is a massive favorite here despite far less experience at this level. The Brazilian is soaring up the rankings and looks like a future championship contender. He's been nothing short of dominant and has an incredible 114-2 significant strike differential across five UFC fights, with those bouts ending in an average of three minutes and seven seconds. 

Meanwhile, the 38-year-old Lewis is on the downward slope of his career. Despite pulling off an upset victory in his previous fight, Lewis is just 2-4 in his last six with all of those defeats coming in lopsided fashion.

His last loss is the most relevant for this matchup since he was facing a grappler in Sergei Spivac and was taken down six times before being submitted in the first round. Almeida is an even better grappler than Spivac and is far more physically gifted as well with better athleticism, speed, and striking ability. 

Almeida should cruise to victory here but I'm not willing to swallow this much chalk on the moneyline, especially against a guy like Lewis who has "death touch" power and significant weight advantage. I'm expecting Almeida to win this one but I'll look elsewhere for betting value.

Prediction: Jailton Almeida moneyline (-485 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Jailton Almeida to win in Round 1

Almeida is a fast starter and four of his last five victories have come by first-round finish. Win or lose, Lewis' bouts tend to get over early as well with four of his last five fights ending inside the first round. 

With Almeida's world-class grappling ability and Lewis' poor defensive wrestling, Almeida will likely win this bout on the mat. That said, he's capable of winning by both ground and pound and submissions. I'll simply take Almeida to win by stoppage in Round 1 as long as you can get that priced at -140 or better.

The problem with that is the earliest books to drop prop odds for this matchup have vastly different numbers with bet365 offering that prop at -120 and DraftKings pricing it at -200. 

If you can't get Almeida in Round 1 at better than -140, I'd recommend taking him to win by submission (-125 at DraftKings). Although Almeida is more than capable of winning by ground and pound, he often prefers to transition and take his opponent's back before sinking in a choke.

In fact, six of Almeida's last eight wins have come via submission and Lewis has been submitted twice in his career — most recently by Spivak just nine months ago. 

Pick: Jailton Almeida to win in Round 1 (-120 at bet365)

Almeida vs Lewis betting preview

Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida is the No. 9 ranked heavyweight contender and is on a 14-fight winning streak, including six in a row inside the octagon. He's coming off a first-round submission victory against Jairzinho Rozenstruik which earned him his third consecutive Performance of the Night bonus.

Almeida began his MMA career as a welterweight in 2012 before taking a four-year hiatus from the sport and returning as a middleweight. In recent years he has bounced between light heavyweight and heavyweight, claiming the Thunder Fight championship at 205 pounds before moving up to heavyweight for his last four bouts in the UFC.  

With a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Almeida is a grappling specialist and 12 of his 19 career wins have come by way of submission. He averages a whopping 6.4 takedowns per 15 minutes and 97% of his significant strikes have come on the mat.

Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis is fresh off an upset victory against Marcos Rogério de Lima in July. He entered that bout as a +185 underdog but starched the Brazilian in 33 seconds to extend his UFC knockout record to 14. 

That win snapped a three-fight losing skid for Lewis who had been finished by Sergey Spivak, Sergei Pavlovich, and Tai Tuivasa within a year. 

A former title contender, the 38-year-old Lewis is on the downward slope of his career and has become more of a gatekeeper in the division. His conditioning and skills are subpar, but he remains a fan favorite and a live dog due to his incredible strength and punching power.

Almeida vs Lewis tale of the tape

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