UFC Fight Night Dawson vs Green Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Dawson Wrestles Way to Victory

Grant Dawson faces off against Bobby Green in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, October 7.

The lightweight division is one of the deepest in the promotion and while Green isn't ranked, he's a veteran fighter who knows how to put on a show. However, Dawson has yet to lose in the octagon and oddsmakers don't expect that to change this week as UFC odds have him installed as a whopping -400 favorite. 

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green picks and predictions for October 7 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Dawson vs Green fight odds

Dawson vs Green method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 4, 2023.

Dawson vs Green picks

Fight prediction: Dawson

Bobby Green has enjoyed a long and successful tenure in the UFC but was never quite good enough to break into the upper echelon of the division. A big reason for that is due to the fact while he's well rounded, he doesn't stand out in any area and generally lacks finishing ability.

Green is in the twilight years of his career and although he finished a washed-up Tony Ferguson in the summer, he's still just 3-4 in his last seven fights. Now he faces off against an elite grappler in Grant Dawson who is just entering his prime and is unbeaten in the UFC.

If Green is able to keep this fight standing up and out-volume Dawson over five rounds, he could take a decision victory. However, Green has lost a bit of his quickness with age and even in the stand up he's been getting hurt in recent fights. Dawson's pressure, relentless takedown attempts, and ability to maintain control will be too much for Green to overcome here. 

Prediction: Dawson ML (-400 at bet365)

Fight best bet: Dawson by submission

Green hasn't been submitted since 2009, but he also hasn't faced a grappler on Dawson's level in an extremely long time. While Green might be able to fight off the first few takedown attempts, he'll eventually get taken down due to Dawson's chain wrestling.

That becomes even more likely in a bout scheduled for 25 minutes inside the smaller Apex octagon. Keep in mind that last year, Dawson was able to take down Olympic medal-winning wrestler Mark Madsen twice, control him for almost 10 minutes, and submit him in the third round. 

With the smaller octagon, Green's ability to maintain distance will be compromised, and with Dawson's pressure he should be able to get him against the cage where he excels. From there, Dawson will be able to use various takedown methods to get Green to the mat and take his back, and it'll be just a matter of time before Dawson can sink in another submission.

Pick: Dawson by submission (+140 at FanDuel)

Dawson vs Green betting preview

Grant Dawson is the No. 10 ranked lightweight contender and is fresh off a unanimous decision win against Damir Ismagulov in July. Dawson entered that bout as a slim +120 underdog but took Ismagulov down three times and controlled him for more than 12 minutes in a dominant performance.

Dawson is 9-0-1 in the octagon and has reeled off three-straight wins since a majority draw against Ricky Glenn in 2021. 

With a background in wrestling and a black belt in BJJ, the 29-year-old is a grappling specialist who thrives on the ground. He averages 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes and 13 of his 20 career wins have come by way of submission.

"King" Bobby Green also previously fought in July when he submitted Tony Ferguson near the end of the third round to earn a Performance of the Night bonus. Green is one of the longest-tenured fighters in the UFC and has compiled an 11-9-1 record since making his promotional debut in 2013. 

Despite being 37 years old and having almost 50 professional bouts under his belt, Green has fantastic conditioning and is still a very active fighter. He's a high-volume striker with solid boxing ability, strong takedown defense, and high-end cardio. 

Dawson vs Green tale of the tape

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