UFC Fight Night Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield Picks and Predictions: Andrade Won't Need Five Rounds

Andrade and Blanchfield will meet in a five-round flyweight bout that oddsmakers are expecting to be a close bout. Our UFC betting picks expect Andrade to pick up thr victory, and aren't expecting it to go the distance.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Feb 18, 2023 • 14:58 ET • 4 min read

Less than a month since her last victory, Jessica Andrade returns to the octagon to face Erin Blanchfield at the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this evening. 

Andrade accepted this fight on late notice and will face off against Blanchfield in a flyweight bout scheduled for five rounds. Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight with UFC odds opening with Andrade as the favorite at -140 with the rising star Blanchfield at +120.

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield picks and predictions for February 18 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield fight odds

Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield method of victory odds

Method of Victory Jessica Andrade Erin Blanchfield
To win by KO/TKO +145 +850
To win by Points +500 +350
To win by Submission +600 +500
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on February 16, 2023.

Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Best UFC bonuses

If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for UFC betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now

B) Andrade to win by decision/technical decision vs. Blanchfield BOOSTED TO +600 at Caesars! Bet Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield betting preview

Jessica Andrade is the former women's strawweight champion but has recently bounced between that division and flyweight. Since she accepted this matchup with just a week's notice, she'll fight at 125 which is what she weighed in at when she defeated Lauren Murphy by unanimous decision less than a month ago.

"Bate Estaca" has now won three fights in a row to rebuild momentum following an unsuccessful flyweight title bid against Valentina Shevchenko in 2021. The 31-year-old is a pressure fighter that uses her strength and power to bully her opponents, both standing up and on the mat.

Erin "Cold Blooded" Blanchfield is 10-1 in her MMA career and hasn't lost since she was a teenager and competing at Invicta in 2019. She's a perfect 4-0 in the UFC and is coming off a first-round submission win against Molly McCann last November — catapulting her into No. 10 in the flyweight rankings.

The 23-year-old is a grappling specialist that began training in BJJ since she was seven. Blanchfield set the women's flyweight record for takedowns in a fight (seven) against Miranda Maverick in 2021 and her last two victories have come by way of submission.

Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield tale of the tape

Jessica Andrade   Erin Blanchfield
31 Age 23
5-foot-2 Height 5-foot-4
125 lbs Weight 125 lbs
62 inches  Reach 68 inches 
24-9 (9 KO) Record 10-1 (2 KO)

Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield UFC prediction and best bet

Blanchfield has loads of potential but hasn't faced anybody of Andrade's caliber before, and this might be an example of too much too soon. The only reason we're getting such a generous line on the former champ is due to her taking this fight on short notice.

While facing off against a grappling specialist without the benefit of a full camp could make things difficult, Andrade has faced plenty of different skill sets over the years and has generally adjusted well to them.

This is one of the best fighters in the world at both strawweight and flyweight, and her only defeats within the last six years have come against the top female fighters in the world like Shevchenko, Zhang Weili, and Rose Namajunas (which was a razor-close split decision).

Andrade's pressure and powerful striking will make things difficult for Blanchfield especially if she has a tough time taking this fight to the mat. With Andrade boasting formidable strength and a 73% takedown defense, I'll back her to keep this standing up enough to get the victory. 

Prediction: Andrade moneyline (-138 at bet365)

Both of these fighters are finishers which is rare for this weight class.

Five of Andrade's last six wins have come inside the first two rounds, and her decision victory against Lauren Murphy could have easily been stopped early since she landed an incredible 231 significant strikes — the second-most in UFC for a three-round fight. 

Meanwhile, Blanchfield has finished her last two opponents inside the first two rounds. Regardless of which fighter is able to implement her game plan don't count on this bout going past the midway point of the third round. 

Pick: Under 2.5 rounds (-115 at DraftKings)

Pages related to this topic

Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo