Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria face off in the headlining event for tonight's UFC Fight Night card.
This should be a total banger between a pair of hard-hitting featherweight contenders. Emmett is coming off an interim title shot but it's the fast-rising Topuria who comes in as an overwhelming -350 favorite on the UFC odds board as he looks for the biggest win of his young career.
Here are my best UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria free betting picks for June 24 from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria fight odds
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Josh Emmett | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +470 | +190 |
| To win by Points | +900 | +900 |
| To win by Submission | +2,000 | +160 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 24, 2023.
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria betting preview
Josh Emmett is coming off a second-round submission loss to Yair Rodriguez for the interim belt in February. That defeat snapped a five-fight winning streak for Emmett, who had picked up tough decision victories over Calvin Kattar, Dan Ige, and Shane Burgos.
Emmett is 9-3 in the UFC with his other two defeats coming by split decision to Desmond and a controversial knockout by Jeremy Stephens.
The 38-year-old has a background in wrestling but prefers to stand and bang. He has very good boxing ability and is one of the hardest hitters at 145 pounds, racking up 11 knockdowns over his last nine fights.
Ilia Topuria has a perfect 13-0 record which includes five straight wins inside the octagon. In his previous bout last December, he faced Bryce Mitchell and outstruck him on the feet before finishing him by submission in the second round.
With that victory, Topuria replaced Mitchell as the No. 9-ranked featherweight contender and earned himself a matchup against the No. 5 contender in Emmett.
The 26-year-old Topuria has a skillset that screams future champion. He's an explosive striker who's comfortable at every distance and he combines that with high-end wrestling and grappling ability. Only one of his 13 career victories has gone past the second round and nine of his opponents have been finished in the opening frame.
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria tale of the tape
| Josh Emmett | Ilia Topuria | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 26 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| 145 lbs | Weight | 145 lbs |
| 70 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 18-3 (6 KO) | Record | 13-0 (4 KO) |
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Ilia Topuria ML
Emmett has faced plenty of high-caliber opponents in the UFC but that experience is also a double-edged sword. He's taken plenty of punishment over the years and at 38 years old, he'll be at a disadvantage against Topuria.
While heavyweights and light heavyweights can often fight at a high level into their late-30s, fighters in the lower weight classes often have a sharp decline at this age due to the importance of speed.
We saw Emmett struggle against a faster fighter earlier this year when Rodriguez vastly outstruck him before submitting him after getting taken to the mat. Emmitt will have a similar time sustaining success in the striking exchanges against a dynamic Topuria who is very fluid and does an excellent job of attacking the body to open up headshots.
That's not even going into the grappling aspect of this matchup because while Emmett has strong takedown defense, he rarely uses his wrestling offensively, and Topuria has far better jiu-jitsu.
Prediction: Ilia Topuria moneyline (-330 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Fight to start Round 2
While I think Topuria wins this fight, the odds are a bit too steep. What's most shocking about the odds for this matchup is that we're getting the O/U for total rounds at just 1.5 with the Under at about -120.
It's rare to see featherweights with as much finishing ability as these two and it also helps that we've seen them both get cracked in recent bouts. Emmett has always been willing to eat a strike to give one and Topuria was dropped by a leg kick against Jai Herbert last year.
That said, both fighters are also very durable and I don't see Topuria stopping Emmett in the opening round. Keep in mind that Emmett has only been finished twice in his career: against Rodriguez late in the second round and against Jeremy Stephens in 2018 when he was finished by what looked like illegal strikes after getting dropped to the mat.
With the "fight to start Round 2" prop available at close to -150, back the gritty veteran Emmett to survive the first five minutes.
Pick: Fight to start Round 2 (-152 at FanDuel)
