Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez battle for three rounds in the welterweight division as the co-main event of tonight's November 5 UFC Fight Night from the Apex Center in Las Vegas.
Magny is one win away from history to pass Georges St. Pierre with the most wins in the welterweight division, and because nothing is given in the UFC, he’ll need to beat the hard-hitting Rodriguez to do it.
Oddsmakers are nearly split down the middle, with Magny a -120 favorite. Rodriguez is only slightly behind him as a +100 UFC odds underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Magny vs. Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night.
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Magny vs Rodriguez fight odds
Magny vs Rodriguez method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Neil Magny | Daniel Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +900 | +340 |
| To win by Points | +130 | +270 |
| To win by Submission | +1,100 | +1,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 3, 2022.
Magny vs Rodriguez picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Magny vs Rodriguez betting preview
Magny already has the record for decision wins in the UFC at 13, but he’s looking for his twentieth win in the welterweight division to take that record, too. “The Haitian Sensation” has been a pro for over a decade, and while he’s starting to settle into the role of a journeyman, he’s still a tough task. Rodriguez is coming into this fight with a head of steam and a four-fight win streak, but has a lot to prove.
Things didn’t look too good for Magny in his last fight. Shavkat Rakhmonov went right through him and submitted him in the second round last March, ending a three-fight win streak. Since 2016, Magny seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough but loses right as the chance for a major fight materializes itself. He’s the consummate professional though, always coming in shape and always leaving it all in the octagon.
Over the course of his 12-year career, Magny lands 3.59 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy and scores 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40% accuracy. He’s a fundamentally balanced striker who has an 80-inch reach and a solid chin, where he’s only been stopped twice. Though he’s coming off his fifth submission defeat, Rodriguez won't bother taking him down.
Instead, the southpaw from California should test Magny’s mettle in strikes. Since a decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in 2020, Rodriguez has won four straight behind his tremendous striking volume and is coming off the biggest win of his career in a split-decision over Li Jingliang at UFC 279. Rodriguez is coming off an elbow infection that prevented this fight from happening three weeks ago, but has been cleared and ready to fight.
Rodriguez lands a stunning 7.75 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy and scores 0.72 takedowns per 15 minutes at 55% accuracy. “D-Rod” is hard to stop once he gets started and can absolutely overwhelm his opponents with pure activity if they can’t slow him down. In his last four fights, Rodriguez has outstruck his opponents 382-215 and scored a stoppage during that stretch.
Magny may not have much left, and Rodriguez is precisely the kind of fighter that should indicate if he can remain competitive. As impressive as Rodriguez is in the stand-up, he’s having trouble defending takedowns and has to overcome a seven-inch reach deficit to set up his offense. It won’t be a shock if the fight is as close as the lines indicate, and I see this going either way.
Magny vs Rodriguez tale of the tape
| Neil Magny | Daniel Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 35 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-0 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 179 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 26-9 (7 KO) | Record | 17-2 (8 KO) |
Magny vs Rodriguez UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Pick
There’s no shame in Magny taking a loss to Rakhmonov so late in his career, especially as the latter is expected to be a major player in the years to come. Rodriguez has come into his own but hasn’t really separated himself from the journeyman level. The razor-thin decision to Jingliang wasn’t without its critics, and he certainly doesn’t want to be a footnote to history here.
Rodriguez can get busy and stay that way, but Magny’s experience, reach, and Rodriguez’s ineffective takedown defense can slow him down. Watching Kevin Lee and his bad knees take Rodriguez down three times and pin him down for half a round isn’t very encouraging. Being a swarmer also means he’s liable to take a lot of shots in return, so he’s giving Magny plenty of chances to score.
Unless Rodriguez flips the script and tries to bully Magny to the mat, this is actually Magny’s fight to lose. He can still absorb a good shot and has that veteran resilience to keep him on his feet, and that alone should be the edge he needs to pull this one off. We’re going with Magny to make history here.
Prediction: Neil Magny moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Pick
As with any of Magny’s fights, the logical choice is that he’ll win by decision. His finishing skills are subpar and he hasn’t scored a finish of any kind in four years, though he’s been finished twice in that same time span. Rodriguez’s window to win the fight will only last one round, as he can catch Magny hot off the first bell. If he can't, then Magny will be able to do what he does best and stifle Rodriguez with clinches and takedowns.
Expect Magny to use his superior reach and mix in a few takedowns on a strike-happy Rodriguez to come out on top with a win and his place in UFC history. A bet on a Magny decision comes in at a solid and reliable +140.
Pick: Neil Magny by decision (+140 at DraftKings)
