UFC Fight Night Morales vs Matthews Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Morales Goes the Distance

Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews serves as the co-main event of tonight’s UFC Fight Night taking place from The Apex in Las Vegas.

The undefeated Morales takes on his toughest test yet against welterweight veteran Matthews, who isn’t ready to enter the stepping stone stage of his MMA career.

UFC odds favor Morales at -298, while Matthews is a +240 underdog. Here are my free picks for Morales vs. Matthews at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews fight odds

Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 18, 2023.

Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews picks

Fight prediction: Morales ML

Michael Morales has been perfect in his MMA career so far, including a 4-0 run in the UFC. At first glance, he looks to have the striking, grappling, and fight IQ to make him a prospect to watch. When it comes to striking, Morales can throw and land a lot of shots if he isn’t discouraged, and his defense isn’t too shabby in that respect.  

Jake Matthews is a step up, though not by that much. One thing about Matthews is that he’s very tough, and on any given night, he can be a handful. Unfortunately for Matthews, he can’t seem to pick up any momentum before he takes a loss.  

When it comes to striking, Morales has the better differential, though they both have good power. 

Grappling-wise, Morales has the better accuracy at 45% compared to 41% to Matthews, and a 91% takedown defense thus far. However, this seems to be the kind of fight where Matthews could look good in spots, but then the wheels will come out from under him. 

Morales’ pressure and takedown defense will shut down the threat of Matthews wrangling him down for submission, and it should allow him to coast to a win. 

Prediction: Morales moneyline (-298 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Morales by decision

Matthews has only been knocked out once by Kevin Lee in 2016, and Morales isn’t making his money as a submission artist. Though Morales comes forward and can build striking momentum once he’s comfortable, Matthews is tough enough to hang in and try to go for takedowns.

Unless Matthews can slow Morales down, it’s hard to imagine he’ll win a decision against the superior striker. Morales has a good chin as we saw in the fight with Max Griffin, and is quick to get off the mat when taken down. That physicality and his already solid takedown defense will keep this standing, and Matthews’ chin should be sturdy enough to go the rounds.

This should be another good test for Morales, who will go the distance against another solid contender for his 16th win.

Pick: Morales by decision (+215 at DraftKings)

Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews betting preview

The undefeated Morales is a talented Muay Thai striker developing into an intriguing prospect. His UFC run so far has been impressive, putting up wins against the likes of Adam Fugitt, Trevin Giles, and Griffin last July. 

Matthews has been a pro since 2011 and has remained a solid contender his entire career. He’s 3-2 over his last five fights, and recently beat Darrius Flowers in July. Matthews has eight submission wins in his career and has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Morales’ defense will be put to the test. Matthews must find a way to limit Morales striking — especially as he lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute — and employs a defensively sound gameplan.

Morales has a six-inch advantage in reach and is five years younger than Matthews, and both competitors average around 11 minutes of fight time.

Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews tale of the tape

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