UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Royval Odds, Picks, and Predictions: "The Assassin Baby" Strikes in Mexico City

Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval face off in the main event of UFC Fight Night betting tonight in Mexico City.

Moreno is a former two-time flyweight champion and hasn't fought since losing the belt to current champ Alexander Pantoja last July. Royval is also fresh off a defeat against Pantoja, when he challenged for the title just two months ago. 

UFC odds have Moreno as a -280 favorite in what could be a stepping stone for the winner to earn another title shot. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval picks and predictions for February 24.

Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval fight odds

Method of Victory	Moreno	Royval
To win outright	-280	+220
To win by KO/TKO	+390	+725
To win by points	+160	+850
To win by submission	+285	+950
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on February 24, 2024.

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Moreno vs Royval picks

Fight prediction: Moreno ML

Brandon Royval is a dangerous fighter with unorthodox striking and wild scrambles. While that chaotic style makes him a treat to watch, it also creates holes for high-caliber opponents to exploit.

Royval is hittable and he can also be taken down and held on the mat. That was the primary reason he lost to Pantoja back in December, when he was taken down eight times and controlled for more than 15 minutes. 

That's been an issue for him throughout his career, with Royval getting taken down eight times by Rogerio Bontorin, four times by Tim Elliott, and twice by Brandon Moreno when these two previously fought in 2020. Moreno won that first fight via knockout in Round 1, and while we might not see an early finish this time, he should ultimately prevail once more.

Moreno has the durability to recover from anything damaging that Royval lands and he's too technical with his boxing and ground game. With a more well-rounded skillset and fewer flaws, expect Moreno to see his hand raised again. 

Prediction: Moreno moneyline (-290 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Moreno by submission or decision

While Royval lost by first-round TKO when these guys previously fought, I don't see Moreno knocking him out again. Keep in mind that Royval entered that fight with a bum shoulder and dislocated that shoulder early, which led to him being unable to defend himself on the mat. 

That's the only time that Royval has been knocked out in his career. Sure, Moreno has extremely sharp boxing with snap in his punches and kicks, but he doesn't have death-touch power and usually accumulates damage over time.

With how dangerous Royval is standing up, a high-IQ fighter like Moreno will likely rely on his grappling to exploit his vulnerability on the ground. We saw Moreno use that recipe the first time these guys fought, with the former champ taking Royval down twice and attempting a pair of submissions in just the first round.

Expect Moreno to avoid Royval's wild striking by taking him down and either submitting him or grinding out a decision victory. 

Pick: Moreno by submission or points (-135 at Bet99)

Moreno vs Royval betting preview

The last time Moreno entered the octagon was in July when he lost the belt to Pantoja. The two-time champ at 125 pounds, Moreno has gone 6-2-1 in his last nine fights. While he has already fallen to Pantoja, it was a close split decision and his other defeat during that span (against former champ Deiveson Figueredo) was also a highly competitive bout.

The 30-year-old is a well-rounded fighter who combines crisp boxing and body kicks with excellent grappling ability. He also has an iron chin and the elite cardio needed to maintain a high pace even at the elevation of Mexico City. 

Royval is coming off a loss in a title challenge against Alexandre Pantoja in December. While the 31-year-old had success on the feet against Pantoja, he was dominated on the mat, leading to two judges scoring the fight 50-45 in Pantoja's favor.

The former LFA flyweight champ, Royval is 7-3 in his last 10 fights, with six of those victories coming inside the distance. The Colorado native is a high-octane fighter who brings constant pressure, throws unorthodox strikes with vicious power, and has superb scrambling ability. 

Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval tale of the tape

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