Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes is the headline event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, April 22.
This should be a terrific bout that could serve as a stepping stone to a heavyweight title shot for whoever comes out on top. UFC odds opened with Blaydes as a -200 favorite but money has come in on Pavlovich who now sits at +145, with Blaydes down to -170.
Here are my best free picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes fight odds
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Sergei Pavlovich | Curtis Blaydes |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +185 | -110 |
| To win by Points | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| To win by Submission | +2,600 | +1,000 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on April 22, 2023.
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes betting preview
Sergei Pavlovich is the No. 3 ranked heavyweight contender currently on a five-fight winning streak, with all of those victories coming by first-round knockout.
The former Fight Night's Global heavyweight champion suffered his first career defeat when he was knocked out by Alistair Overeem in his UFC debut back in 2018. He hasn't lost since and after a lengthy layoff due to the pandemic, has picked up three wins last year — including stoppage victories against Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis inside the first minute.
Pavlovich has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling and sambo but has relied on his striking in the UFC. He has powerful and accurate boxing along with a gargantuan 84-inch reach.
Curtis "Razor" Blaydes is one spot behind Pavlovich in the heavyweight rankings and is coming off a TKO victory against Tom Aspinall. That fight had an unfortunate ending with Aspinall tearing his MCL in the opening seconds, but Blaydes looked great in his previous bout, knocking out Chris Daukaus to claim the second Performance of the Night bonus of his career.
Blaydes is 12-2 in his last 14 trips to the octagon, with his only defeats coming by way of knockout to the hardest hitters in MMA: Francis Ngannou and Lewis.
The 32-year-old is the best wrestler in the division and averages a whopping 6.05 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 41% of his significant strikes coming on the ground.
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes tale of the tape
| Sergei Pavlovich | Curtis Blaydes | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 32 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-4 |
| 255 lbs | Weight | 260 lbs |
| 84 inches | Reach | 80 inches |
| 17-1 (14 KO) | Record | 17-3 (12 KO) |
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Pavlovich
This is an intriguing fight because each fighter profiles as the other's kryptonite. Blaydes has only lost to incredibly powerful punchers like Ngannou and Lewis, while Pavlovich was taken down and lost by ground-and-pound to Overeem.
However, that defeat to Overeem happened all the way back in 2018 and Pavlovich has surely worked on improving his takedown defense — especially since he started training with American Top Team.
Blaydes has been looking more comfortable with his striking lately, but that might actually be a bad thing in this matchup. He doesn't even need to stand with Pavlovich for 25 minutes to get starched, even engaging with him on the feet for a minute or two is enough for Pavlovich to put him away.
Keep in mind that Blaydes was able to beat a striker like Jairzinho Rozenstruik in 2021 because he could stay on the outside with striking and spam takedowns when the distance was closed. However, Pavlovich fights with a lot more pressure than Rozenstruik, and his 84-inch reach means that he can land bombs even at distance.
Prediction: Pavlovich ML (+145 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Pavlovich by KO/TKO/DQ
It's incredibly impressive that Pavlovich's last five wins in the UFC (and 14 of his 17 overall MMA victories) have all come inside the first round. He really has one path to victory in this one and that's by letting his hands fly and getting an early knockout.
Pavlovich uses his incredible reach-to-height ratio (his ape index of +9 inches is the greatest in the UFC) to fire straights and his overhand punches are devastating as well.
While Pavlovich doesn't put people to sleep like Ngannou or Lewis, he is more accurate with his punches and tends to stun his opponents before swarming in for the finish. Blaydes will be vulnerable to those shots either on takedown entries or when he tries to strike at range.
I love the value on Pavlovich as an underdog, and if you like him to win, you may as well back him to win by knockout.
Pick: Pavlovich by KO/TKO/DQ (+175 at DraftKings)
