UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs Jun Yong Park Odds, Picks & Predictions

Originally set to fight back in August, Jun Yong Park had to withdraw due to a last-minute illness. Danny Howard explains why the South Korean middleweight should prevail when these two middleweights finally clash tonight.

Danny Howard - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Danny Howard • Betting Analyst
Oct 12, 2024 • 12:00 ET • 4 min read
Jun Young Park UFC
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Brad Tavares vs. Jun Young Park takes place this evening as the co-main event of the latest UFC Fight Night card.

Though Tavares remains one of the longest-tenured UFC fighters in the division, his time is rapidly coming to an end, and that’s why Park will be ready to capitalize on his decline.

UFC odds have Park listed as a -190 favorite, while Tavares is a +160 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Park predictions from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Tavares vs Park prediction and pick

Fight analysis

Brad Tavares has been a reliable operator at middleweight for a long time, serving as a litmus test for many of today's top contenders and former champions when it was their time to prove their worth. He maintains decent striking, solid takedown defense, and he fights in a very controlled and patient manner. 

However, Tavares has seen better days, going 1-3 in his last four fights, with the sole win being against a badly faded Chris Weidman. His most recent loss — a third-round stoppage to Gregory Rodriguez — suggests he may not have much left in the tank.

Jun Yong Park is a banger, and he likes to get inside, aiming for takedowns and maintaining a high-intensity approach when he grounds his opponents and looks for submissions. Though the South Korean is an entertaining fighter to watch, he is coming off a split-decision loss to Andre Muniz, where he dominated the striking but was taken down 11 times.

The risk for Park in this fight is that his strength lies on the ground, but he'll need to rely on his striking if he wants to avoid wasting energy and give ground to his aging opponent.

Ultimately, Park's intensity and pacing will leave Tavares behind. This could still be a close fight if Tavares can slow it down and capitalize on Park's mistakes, but his recent performances suggest he's a step slower than he used to be. 

Best best analysis

Neither fighter excels at finishing, with most of their bouts either going the distance or at least extending into the third round. I wouldn’t put it past Park to attempt a few takedowns, but even if he succeeds, Tavares has impeccable ground defense and hasn’t lost by submission in his career. 

Even in his current state, Park’s submission game isn't strong enough to hand Tavares that kind of loss. The best bet is that this matchup goes the distance.

Brad Tavares vs Jun Yong Park odds

Bet99
Method of Victory Tavares Park
To win outright +160 -190
To win by KO/TKO +850 +400
To win by decision +240 +125
To win by submission +2,500 +790
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds as of 10-12.

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Brad Tavares vs JunYong Park tale of the tape

Tavares   Park
36 Age 33
6-foot-1 Height 5-foot-10
185 pounds Weight 185 pounds
74 inches Reach 73 inches
20-10 (5 KOs) Record 17-6 (5 KOs)

Not intended for use in MA.
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Danny Howard - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

After a decade of covering all things boxing, from recapping the sport’s biggest fights to sharing behind-the-scenes details of the sweet science, Danny found himself immersed in sports betting, focusing on the sports he knows best. As a boxing and MMA contributor with seasoned experience from growing up around each sport, he can uncover the nuances and intangibles that can make the difference between victory and defeat.

Danny’s work has been mentioned on ESPN and USA Today, and he was a featured guest on The Esportz Network podcast, where he shared his combat sports insights. He is also a published author, with his novel And Stay Down! Boxing’s Worst Comebacks available on Amazon.

Danny is always on the lookout for the best odds and props when it comes to fight night, with Draft Kings and BetMGM being his go-to sites. Danny’s approach to finding value in the theater of the unexpected hinges on the fighters' recent form, especially when considering props.

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