Noche UFC Raul Rosas Jr. vs Terrence Mitchell Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Mitchell Taps Early

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell is scheduled for three rounds in the bantamweight division, and is a featured undercard attraction on this weekend’s Noche UFC card from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Teenage phenom Rosas is looking to recover from an upset loss in his previous bout, and he’ll have to impress against the physically imposing Mitchell.

UFC odds make Rosas a massive favorite at -750, and Mitchell is a +110 underdog. Here are my free picks for Rosas vs. Mitchell at Noche UFC from Las Vegas.

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Terrence Mitchell fight odds

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Terrence Mitchell method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 16, 2023.

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell picks

Fight prediction: Rosas ML

The Raul Rosas hype train was derailed just as it left the station as the 18-year-old grappler looked out of his depth against Christian Rodriguez at UFC 287. The young upstart floundered in the face of adversity, having no plan B when Rodriguez shut his grappling down and outstruck him 29-2 in the decision loss. It’s back to the drawing board for Rosas, and Mitchell is the right man for the job.

Mitchell is best known for his humiliating loss to Kai Kara-France on The Ultimate Fighter seven years ago. More recently, Cameron Saaiman savaged him via first-round knockout at UFC 290. Between now and then, Mitchell competed primarily in Alaska, not showing much promise.

While Rosas remains a one-dimensional grappler for now, that should be enough to give him an edge. Mitchell possesses height and reach advantages, but he doesn’t use them effectively enough to make me feel like he can keep Rosas from getting in on him. 

There is a chance Rosas tries to demonstrate improved striking from his previous fight, but I don’t feel like it will get to that point. Once Rosas closes the distance, Mitchell won't be crafty enough to offer much resistance.

The call is Rosas getting back on track with a win.

Prediction: Rosas moneyline (-750 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Rosas by sub in R1

While Rosas coughed it up as a significant favorite in his last fight, some said all along that Rodriguez was being overlooked. That isn’t the case for Mitchell, who just doesn’t have the chops to make it at this level. 

The UFC can still revive Rosas’ marketability with a dominant win on the Mexican Independence Day weekend, and move him along methodically enough to where he can round out his skills. This is the first step to get him back on track and should emphasize his grappling prowess.

Once Rosas works inside Mitchell’s reach, he’ll scoop him up and pin him on the canvas. Helpless and hapless, Mitchell will get tied up and submitted before the end of Round 1.

Pick: Rosas to win by submission in Round 1 (-150 at DraftKings)

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Terrence Mitchell betting preview

Raul Rosas, at 7-1, suffered his first career loss in his last fight against Rodriguez. He's an 18-year-old grappling specialist who shows tremendous promise.

Mitchell, with a record of 14-2, has been a staple in the Alaskan MMA scene and is known for his finishing ability. However, his two losses affiliated with the UFC were conclusive enough to determine he might be out of his element.

Rosas will need to overcome a significant reach disadvantage and Mitchell's experience to utilize his grappling skills effectively. Both fighters struggled in their previous fights with striking, and this will only be Mitchell's second official fight outside of Alaska.

Overall, the stage seems set for Rosas to secure a dominant win and get his career back on track.

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Terrence Mitchell tale of the tape

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