UFC 268 Burgos vs Quarantillo Picks: Going the Distance

Shane Burgos is coming off a pair of defeats, but he's primed for a bounce-back and has a favorable matchup against Billy Quarantillo at UFC 268. Find out if the favorite can deliver as we break down the fight with our Burgos vs. Quarantillo picks.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Nov 5, 2021 • 09:07 ET • 1 min read

Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo is on the main card for UFC 268 betting on November 6 from Madison Square Garden in New York City.

This should be a banger between a pair of featherweights looking to climb the rankings. UFC betting odds opened with Burgos as a -200 favorite while Quarantillo comes back at +160.

Here are our best free Burgos vs. Quarantillo picks and predictions for UFC 268 on Saturday, November 6.

Burgos vs Quarantillo fight odds

Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Burgos vs Quarantillo method of victory odds

Method of Victory Shane Burgos Billy Quarantillo
To win by KO/TKO +340 +550
To win by Points +150 +380
To win by Submission +950 +1,200
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of November 5, 2021.

Burgos vs Quarantillo pick

Click on the pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Burgos vs Quarantillo betting preview

Shane "Hurricane" Burgos is the No. 14-ranked featherweight contender and is coming off back-to-back losses. In his previous bout in May, he was finished by a bizarre delayed-reaction knockout in the third round against Edson Barboza. Prior to that, he lost to Josh Emmett by unanimous decision.

Despite those defeats, the 30-year-old is still 6-3 in the UFC and has earned Fight of the Night honors in each of his losses. Burgos is a strong boxer with great movement and he puts together nice combinations. He's also an above-average wrestler and can control in the clinch with strong knees.

Billy Quarantillo is coming off a Fight of the Night performance himself after defeating Gabriel Benitez via third-round TKO in July. The former King of the Cage lightweight champion is 9-1 in his last 10 fights, including 5-1 in the octagon.

The 32-year-old combines slick-striking and pressure, along with solid grappling ability and the cardio to grind down opponents.

Burgos vs Quarantillo tale of the tape

Shane Burgos   Billy Quarantillo
30 Age 32
5-foot-11 Height 5-foot-10
146 lbs Weight 145 lbs
75.5 inches Reach 70 inches
13-3-0 (5 KO) Record 16-3-0 (7 KO)

Burgos vs Quarantillo UFC prediction and betting pick

Burgos' brawling style can make him a bit hittable at times, but Quarantillo doesn't have the power to make him pay for that. Keep in mind that Burgos' recent losses happened against some of the hardest hitters in the division, and while Quarantillo showed improved striking against Benitez, he still isn't on Burgos' level in that department.

While Quarantillo is a solid all-around fighter, he doesn't stand out in any one area. He won't be able to implement his grappling against Burgos' strong defensive wrestling, and when he applies pressure himself, he'll face Hurricane's ability to counter. 

Expect Burgos' pressure, boxing, and toughness to give him the edge in what will be 15 minutes of war. 

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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