UFC 290 Nickal vs Woodburn Picks and Predictions: Underdog Substitute is Overmatched

UFC middleweights Bo Nickal and Val Woodburn look to make the most of their time in the spotlight as these two prospects face off on the UFC 290 undercard, taking place this weekend from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

UFC odds have Nickal a seemingly insurmountable favorite at -2,400, while late substitute Woodburn is a decided +1,200 underdog. The stars are aligning to give Nickal another win on a high-profile card.

Let’s see how this fight between the two prospects plays out, and what I think the best plays are ahead of this Nickal vs. Woodburn showdown in Las Vegas.

Nickal vs Woodburn fight odds

Nickal vs Woodburn method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on July 8, 2023.

Nickal vs Woodburn picks

• Prediction: Nickal ML (-2,400)
• Best bet: Nickal ML (-2,400)

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Nickal vs Woodburn betting preview

The UFC sure seems sweet on Nickal. This is his second straight appearance on a major pay-per-view card where he's a huge favorite. The wrestling prodigy has all the right qualities to make him a potential megastar, and the promotion is ensuring he gets plenty of exposure to the public and is brought along delicately.

Nickal has been marketed as a strong wrestler and with the limited appearances we’ve seen from him, it’s accurate. He has a suffocating grappling game and supreme conditioning. Once he gets his opponents on the ground, he becomes immediately dangerous as he seeks out submissions. In his three fights with the UFC, he’s averaging 12.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and three first-round submission wins.

So far, Nickal has been fighting opponents who lack the resources to handle his groundwork. Original opponent Tresean Gore figured to be more of the same, and we shouldn’t expect a change in plans with Nickal’s strategy. The southpaw will move forward, throw a few shots to get Woodburn’s hands up and take him down into the mat.

Not much is known about Woodburn, but he was slated to fight for a UFC contract as part of the Dana White Contender Series. He’s 7-0 and trains with the Xtreme Couture gym and operates primarily as a striker. He’s also the current middleweight title of the regional Combat Night promotions, so he's more of an unknown than a total novice.

The Jamaican is no doubt benefitting from working with top fighters and is more versatile than Gore. With what we’ve seen from Woodburn, he’s a pressure fighter with good striking instincts and a solid finisher. He’s scored five knockouts in seven fights and may give Nickal some trouble if he can avoid the takedowns.    

Five days' notice to face a blue-chip prospect is never an easy ask. Then again, Woodburn is not a happily available journeyman, nor is Nickal a certified killer at this stage of his career. Woodburn is an upgrade to Gore in every way, but whether or not he’s a real threat to Nickal is the real question.

Nickal vs Woodburn tale of the tape

Nickal vs Woodburn UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Bo Nickal ML

This fight reminds me of Raul Rosas vs. Christian Rodriguez, where the hotshot young grappler was matched against a nondescript striker with experience.

The phenomenon was brought down to earth with a loss. Though I recognize Woodburn being more dangerous than Gore, the lack of prep time and the fact that he’s a similar build to what Nickal has been preparing for still makes Nickal the pick.

Prediction: Bo Nickal moneyline (-2,400 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Bo Nickal ML

With no other lines, we’ll have to stick to the moneyline here. 

Pick: Bo Nickal moneyline (-2,400 at DraftKings)

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