It’s a striker’s dream when Stephen Thompson and Michel Pereira face off on the UFC 291 undercard this Saturday, July 29, from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Thompson called out Pereira, hoping to give another young bull the horns, and Pereira answered the call to potentially down the future Hall of Famer.
UFC odds slightly favor Thompson’s finesse at -150 with Pereira not far behind at +130. Here are my free picks for Thompson vs. Pereira at UFC 291 from Salt Lake City.
Thompson vs Pereira fight odds
Thompson vs Pereira method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Stephen Thompson | Michel Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +360 | +550 |
| To win by Points | +145 | +310 |
| To win by Submission | +2,000 | +1,000 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 26, 2023.
Thompson vs Pereira picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Thompson vs Pereira betting preview
After a pair of tough losses threatened his status as an elite welterweight, Stephen Thompson returned to form — stopping Kevin Holland in the fourth round of an epic battle. Thompson didn’t waste any time and called for fellow striking extraordinaire Michel Pereira for a showdown.
The 40-year-old Thompson is a technical striker who masters measuring distance and has impeccable conditioning and skill. He is nimble and quick for his age, and can still dish out a good beating as evident in the Holland brawl. As long as Thompson doesn’t hit the mat, he still remains one of the best pure strikers in the UFC.
If Thompson is the technician, then Pereira is the stuntman. The Brazilian has wowed fans with his bursts of energy and unique offense, winning his last five fights... including a split decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio in May 2022.
One aspect of Pereira’s offense that might serve him best is his takedowns, where he averages 1.58 per 15 minutes at 55% accuracy. Beating Thompson is still a big task for all but the elite and the easiest way to do that has been to take him to the ground. Pereira’s wild attack and the unpredictable offense should give Thompson all he can handle.
Thompson vs Pereira tale of the tape
| Stephen Thompson | Michel Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Age | 29 |
| 6-feet | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 17-6-1 (8 KOs) | Record | 28-11 (10 KOs) |
Thompson vs Pereira UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Thompson ML
How many fights does “Wonderboy” have left? The Holland fight showed that he was still a legitimate force, but the taxing nature of that battle and the fact he broke two bones in his hand could play a role in this bout. Pereira is a wild man in every sense of the word, and that might be the genius behind Thompson’s call out.
Pereira loads up on his shots and expends a lot of energy with his lateral movement, giving Thompson a 2-in-1 strategy behind body kicks to beach Pereira and keep him still.
A lot of Pereira’s offense comes from opponents being dazzled by his movement. Thompson’s accuracy and own tricky movement might give Pereira the shudder step, throwing him off and allowing Thompson to operate.
Pereira is the stronger striker, but so was Holland, and Thompson broke him down with accuracy and patience. This is a toss-up, and Pereira getting Thompson on the ground would likely swing the fight in his favor — but I’m picking the old professor to give out another lesson.
Prediction: Thompson moneyline (-150 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Over 2.5 rounds
Though Thompson is the pick, it’s hard to be confident about a 40-year-old fighter staying fresh after a grueling fight. “Wonderboy” is at the age where that switch can turn off on any given night, just like we saw in Holly Holm’s last fight. Though there is a method to his madness in seeking Pereira out, victory isn’t assured.
What we do know about both fighters is that they aren’t known for their finishing skills, as both Thompson and Pereira’s average fight time is over 12 minutes. Thompson’s last stoppage before Holland was in 2016, and Pereira hasn’t scored a stoppage since 2019.
Considering their durability, cardio, and lack of finishing abilities, this fight being stopped inside the distance would be a surprise. While this isn’t a big money choice, picking the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds at -205 is a solid value for this fight.
Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-205 at DraftKings)
