Welterweight sensation Ian Garry takes on division staple Neil Magny tonight at UFC 292 at the TD Arena in Boston.
Nothing seems to be in the way of the rapidly ascending Garry, and next on his path to welterweight stardom is Magny, who is coming in on short notice in hopes of scoring a big upset.
UFC odds make Garry a significant favorite at -500, and Magny is a big underdog at +380.
Here is what I’m calling Garry vs. Magny at UFC 292 from Boston.
Neil Magny vs Ian Garry fight odds
Neil Magny vs Ian Garry method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Neil Magny | Ian Garry |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,800 | +120 |
| To win by points | +550 | +240 |
| To win by submission | +2,200 | +500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 19, 2023.
Neil Magny vs Ian Garry picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Neil Magny vs Ian Garry betting preview
Ian Garry is looking better after each fight, and at 25, there’s a good chance he can end up being “the guy” at welterweight. He iced Daniel Rodriguez in his last fight, and he faces a stern test against the division’s toughest gatekeeper, Neil Magny. While Geoff Neal would have been a great indicator of how Garry handles true elite opposition, Magny should generate a similar outcome.
Garry is an excellent striker, landing an astonishing 6.85 significant strikes per minute with seven knockouts. Though Garry doesn’t have much of a takedown game, he’s a judo black belt and has avoided ground-related calamities thus far. With his activity and finishing skills, he could develop into a real force at welterweight.
Magny is coming off a split-decision win over Phil Rowe and accepted the fight as a late substitute. This shouldn’t be too tough for Magny, a consummate professional, and he’ll aim to limit Garry’s output and try to force him to the ground. The record holder for most wins in the history of the welterweight division at 21, and with over six hours of fight time under his belt, Magny has probably forgotten more about MMA than Garry has learned.
Against Rowe, Magny outworked his opponent to victory, but he can’t rely on Garry being passive. Though Magny remains a high-level gatekeeper, he’s suffered two submission losses in his last five fights.
Neil Magny vs Ian Garry tale of the tape
| Neil Magny | Ian Garry | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 25 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 74.5 inches |
| 28-10 (7 KO) | Record | 12-0 (7 KO) |
Neil Magny vs Ian Garry UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Garry ML
Unlike Garry’s previous opponents, Magny excels at playing the long game. The veteran possesses an 81-inch reach and solid conditioning, and due to his lack of stopping power, won’t resort to engaging Garry. Then again, it’s hard to imagine Magny hammering out a solid game plan with just over a week to prepare.
Magny is slowing down. Garry might not be at the level of Gilbert Burns or Shavkat Rahkmonov at this moment, but he’s also not the kind of fighter Magny has had a lot of success against in recent years. If you’re one-dimensional and easy to read, Magny beats you. That isn’t Garry.
Watching Magny skirt past Rowe doesn’t bode well here. Garry staying busy ensures he’ll outland Magny in significant strikes as Rowe did, and his activity should open up major scoring opportunities as Magny tries to negate his momentum.
I don’t see Magny, as resourceful as he is, having a tool to beat Garry. With such little notice and against a tough matchup otherwise, I don’t see anything outside of a Garry win.
Prediction: Ian Garry moneyline (-500 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Garry in Rounds 1-2
With Garry’s upward trajectory and Magny’s rush to ring readiness, Garry has a solid chance at winning. Magny’s recent losses were submissions, but Garry is opting to strike, and Magny hasn’t been knocked out in many years.
If Garry is for real — and I believe he is — he’ll stop Magny. All the elements are there for him to get a knockout. Magny is going to try and stink him out, but the minute he gives up that reach advantage, Garry is going to be all over him.
I’ll give Magny the benefit of the doubt that he can possibly slow Garry down just a bit to escape the first round. Beyond that, I don’t see him making it to the end of the fight with such short notice, and against such a gifted fighter.
Garry by knockout in the first two rounds is my best bet.
Pick: Ian Garry to win in Rounds 1-2 (-105 at DraftKings)
