UFC 293 Kape vs dos Santos Picks and Predictions: Finshed Inside the Distance

Manel Kape vs. Felipe Dos Santos is a flyweight clash scheduled for three rounds on the UFC 293 undercard taking place this Saturday, September 9, at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

Dos Santos is coming in for an injured Kai Kara-France and hopes to upset the heavily favored Kape to earn his chance to compete in the UFC.

UFC odds favor Kape at -395, and Dos Santos is a +310 underdog. 

Here are my best free UFC 293 picks for Kape vs. Dos Santos from Sydney.

Manel Kape vs Felipe dos Santos fight odds

Manel Kape vs Felipe dos Santos method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 9, 2023.

Manel Kape vs Felipe dos Santos picks

Fight prediction: Kape moneyline (-395)

Though this isn’t the high-stakes clash originally scheduled with Dos Santos replacing the injured Kai Kara-France, this is an intriguing match. Kape has been building himself up to becoming a top flyweight over the last two years, and he now faces a 22-year-old upstart who himself may eventually be a divisional player.

Dos Santos is 7-0-1 on the Brazilian circuit and fights with tremendous energy. He tries to close the distance right away and is an offensive buzzsaw. That fan-friendly style has some substance behind it, and it also is music to Kape’s ears. 

Kape is a technical striker who operates at his best when he’s countering, using his patience and his opponent’s momentum against them. The former Rizin bantamweight champion is going to have a lot of scoring opportunities presented to him by Dos Santos. 

Dos Santos’ recklessness will spoil his debut. He can get caught on the way in and doesn’t often return his hands to a defensive position after beginning his offense, leaving him wide open to counter shots and getting dominated on the outside where Kape shines.

It should be a spirited effort by a game, but overmatched fighter, but Kape is going to win rather handily.

Prediction: Kape Moneyline (-395 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Pick

Kape’s superior striking proficiency and experience will be too much for Dos Santos to overcome. Though the first round might feature a lot of fun exchanges, Dos Santos will get worked over and struggle to survive going the distance. Kape should get Dos Santos’ timing down, and that will end up with him landing a series of debilitating strikes the longer the fight goes on.

Eventually, it’ll be too much for Dos Santos to handle. Without the type of one-punch KO power, he’ll peter out and wilt under Kape’s precision. I’m picking Kape to hand Dos Santos a loss via KO.

Pick: Kape To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-135 at DraftKings)

Manel Kape vs Felipe dos Santos betting preview

Manel Kape was originally scheduled to first face Deiveson Figueiredo, then Kai Kara-France with both falling out and opening the door for Dos Santos. This figures to be a matador vs. bull match-up, as Kape is more along the lines of a reactionary striker and Dos Santos is constantly coming forward.

A former Rizin bantamweight champion, Kape (18-6)  has won his last three fights in a row and is currently the #10 ranked flyweight. “Starboy” lands 4.46 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy and has 11 knockouts. Kape needed all three rounds to beat the durable David Dvorak in his last fight.

Felipe Dos Santos (7-0, 1 NC) is a high-level prospect on the Brazilian MMA circuit who may not necessarily need a victory to come out a winner. The 22-year-old will have slight advantages in height and reach compared to Kape and tends to fight at a high pace. Though he is a heavy underdog, a decent showing may result in him earning a UFC contract.

Manel Kape vs Felipe dos Santos tale of the tape

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