UFC 293 Pedro vs Turkalj Picks and Predictions: Pleasure Man Secures First UFC Victory

Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj is scheduled for three rounds in the light heavyweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 293 undercard, taking place this Saturday, September 9, at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

Pedro and Turkalj are both reeling from losses in their previous fights, and Pedro hopes to bounce back in front of his home crowd to the detriment of “The Pleasure Man.”

UFC odds have this priced as an even fight with Turkalj and Pedro both -110. Here are my free picks for Pedro vs. Turkalj at UFC 293 from down under.

Tyson Pedro vs Anton Turkalj fight odds

Tyson Pedro vs Anton Turkalj method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 7, 2023.

Tyson Pedro vs Anton Turkalj picks

Fight prediction: Turkalj ML

This fight will ultimately be decided by whether Anton Turkalj can survive Pedro’s torrent pace in Round 1. We saw in their last fights that these two came out of the gates with a different objective: Pedro is looking to end things as quickly as possible, and Turkalj opts to measure before attacking.

If Pedro starts strong, Turkalj could be in significant danger. However, Pedro tends to fade after the first round and lacks the stamina to win a fight that goes the distance. In fact, all three of Pedro's UFC bouts that went beyond the first round ended in losses — including a picture-perfect example in his most recent defeat to Modestas Bukauskas.

The onus of survival falls on Turkalj, who has yet to score a win in the UFC after winning a contract on his Contender Series stint. His losses came to Jailton Almeida and the undefeated Vitor Petrino, which isn’t a bad thing. He’s a solid grappler who scores 6.97 takedowns per 15 minutes thus far, and he was a finisher on the regional circuit where his stiff striking was his calling card. 

If Pedro does come out hot, Turkalj must avoid hitting the ground and rely on his defense to avoid any early calamity. Once he survives Round 1, it’s almost a guarantee Pedro won't have the legs underneath him to resist his takedowns nor the conditioning to keep his hands up to avoid strikes.

Turkalj can’t be faulted for losing to two legitimate fighters, and he has a man in front of him who for the life of him hasn’t developed the cardio to fight a solid 15 minutes. I’m taking “The Pleasure Man” to survive a rocky start and win out with his pressure and takedown game.

Prediction: Turkalj moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Turkalj by decision

While Pedro may lack the energy for an active finish or a comeback on the scorecards, he can likely initiate enough clinches to protect himself. Turkalj should be able to slow down Pedro significantly once they move past the first round, utilizing takedowns and possibly showcasing his striking skills to keep Pedro uncomfortable.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Turkalj starts to land some bombs on a debilitated Pedro, sending him crashing to the mat for a stoppage. He’ll have to watch out though, because Pedro isn’t exactly a dead man walking should the fight go into the second round. The stars are aligning for Turkalj to get his first win on the UFC roster, and I’ll take him doing so by points.

Pick: Turkalj to win by decision (+420 at DraftKings)

Tyson Pedro vs Anton Turkalj betting preview

This light heavyweight fight pits the explosive, yet limited Pedro against the well-rounded Turkalj. Both these fighters are coming off losses, with Pedro starting strong only to fade out against Modestas Bukauskas and Turkalj dropping a decision to Vitor Petino.

Pedro (9-4) has a black belt in both Brazilian and Japanese Jiu-Jitsu, as well as Kempo. His wins are all finishes with five submissions and four knockouts, but the Australian is 0-3 in fights that go beyond the first round. Pedro scored wins over Paul Craig and Khalil Rountree a lifetime ago but has failed to recapture his early career form.

Meanwhile, “The Pleasure Man” Turkalj (8-2) possesses arguably the best ring name in UFC history. That said, Turkalj has had a rough time since a sensational win over Acaio Dos Santos to win a UFC contract, taking losses to the highly regarded Jailton Almeida and Petino.

Those limited to watching just his UFC appearances may think of him as a grappler, but he has five knockouts and has gone the distance only twice. 

Tyson Pedro vs Anton Turkalj tale of the tape

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